Easily Ignored Insights

by Will Wilkinson on May 2, 2010

An excellent passage from Josef Joffe’s review of Tony Judt’s Ill Fares the Land:

The central problem with “Ill Fares the Land” is a classic fallacy of the liberal-left intelligentsia, more in Europe than in the United States. Call it the “Doctor State Syndrome.” The individual is greedy, misguided or blind. The state is the Hegelian embodiment of the right and the good that floats above the fray. But the state does not. It is a party to the conflict over “who gets what, when and how,” to recall Harold Lasswell’s definition of politics. It makes its own pitch for power; it creates privileges, franchises and clienteles. This is why it is so hard to rein in, let alone cut back. The modern welfare state creates a new vested interest with each new entitlement. It corrupts as it does good.

It also invites corruption of itself because the more the state distributes and regulates, the more it tempts its citizens to outflank the market and manipulate public power for private gain. The founding fathers grasped this hard truth, and hence they hemmed in government. Even the most moderate of social democrats tend to ignore this insight, and so does Tony Judt.

Which puts me in mind of this comment on epistemic closure from Scott Sumner (scroll down to item 4):

If you want to talk about epistemic closure, consider how few left-of-center intellectuals realize that the standard model of economics, even as presented in textbooks written by economists who are left of center, gives very little support for the great mass of government programs that are cherished by liberals.

Here are the key market failures:

1.  Inequality—The solution is redistributive taxes.

2.  Externalities (and second-hand smoke is not an externality)—The solution is Pigou taxes.

3.  Monopoly—The solution is antitrust laws.  And with free entry the only plausible problem is price-fixing cartels.  Even anti-merger laws are of dubious value.

4.  Public goods—only a few goods such as lighthouses and medical research meet the criteria, and even lighthouses are a dubious example.

But that’s about it.  The SEC?  The FDA?  OSHA?  I have no idea how these or 90% of other government activities can be justified.

Does imperfect information call for regulation?  I doubt it, but if so then provide the information.   The free-rider problem with medical insurance?  OK, but Singapore has shown that this problem can be solved with the government spending 1% to 2% of GDP (plus forced saving), not the 8% contemplated by Obama.  There really is no justification for big government in the sort of model provided in economic textbooks written by liberals.  Most left-leaning intellectuals don’t realize this; indeed they find my views to be slightly nutty.  That’s epistemic closure.

I think that relatively closed-minded people are somewhat more likely to prefer conservative over liberal ideologies (the political psychology lit I think bears this out.) But among intellectuals liberals are far more likely to live in an ideological cocoon in which their blithe assumptions are reinforced daily simply because most other intellectuals are liberals of a similar sort. Sumner’s views are more than slightly nutty because, really, who thinks this way? If these were smart things to think, wouldn’t at least some our smart friends already think them? It is incredibly easy for the Judts of the world, and for the second, third, and nth-rate Judts who occupy the cluttered offices of our colleges and universities, to casually shrug off Sumner’s conclusion that “[t]here really is no justification for big government in the sort of model provided in economic textbooks written by liberals” because (in the unlikely event they were ever to hear such a thing uttered) liberals like the ones who wrote the textbooks will tell them confidently, smugly even, that of course there is a justification provided there. The insularity of the academy is cozy, much as the cultural insularity of the United States  is cozy. Both breed an ignorant sense of self-satisfied superiority. Maybe, if we could, Scott Sumner and I would only read each other and others like us who would explain to us why we are entitled to ignore benighted ignoramuses like Tony Judt. Instead, almost monthly I am aggravated anew by an only semi-willing confrontation with yet another Tony Judt essay, and I am pleasantly surprised to find a review like Joffe’s in the Times.

  • frankcross
    There's a respectable amount of truth here but including the SEC is so uninformed as to seriously demean the post. There are not only strong theoretical grounds for the SEC, its value has been empirically confirmed as substantial for the economy. In multiple studies.
  • Robin
    "But that’s about it. The SEC? The FDA? OSHA? I have no idea how these or 90% of other government activities can be justified."

    My suspicion is that there's always something in economic theory that can justify these activities. Re FDA see: http://papers.nber.org/papers/w15651#fromrss which argues that regulation is a solution to "the failure of courts to solve contract and tort disputes cheaply, predictably, and impartially." Or this one (http://hanson.gmu.edu/whyban.pdf) that suggests that warning labels are cheap talk. This is not to say that they're right, but to suggest that you can probably find reasons in economic theory for most regulation, as well as reasons against it.
  • MichaelDrew
    I think Will has a fair point as far as conventional opnion in various camps go. I think he's wrong that libertarians tend to be any less smug, self-selected, mutually-reinforcing, self-satisfied etc. in their views than liberals, and that liberals do not encounter much of the kind of free-market argument he thinks is so rare (even if they do just dismiss it by unanimous agreement aming themselves). I mean, the WSJ opinion page does exist -- you can't dismiss that.

    But it's worth recalling just what Julian Sanchez was refering to with his coinage, and to do that Julian has helpfully recently penned a nice review of some of the discussion that has cropped up around it. There he points out that he wasn't claiming that insulation of opinion is a phenomenon unique or even most prevalent among conservatives (and keep in mind - he was always talking about conservative epistemic closure, not libertarian or any other anti-liberal version). Rather he claims that to achieve the kind of exclusive self-satisfaction with the prevailing dogma of the movement that all the camps engage in, the conservatives of the Fox news variety in particular have had to engage in a project of epistemic recreation of the actual facts of the world, which they can all then agree accurately represents reality and proceed on to the desired smugness. It is this created world, and the mutual and exclusive adoption of its features by conservatives to support (make possible) the opinions they desire to have as canonical in the movement, that Sanchez coined as epistemic closure. My impression is he takes the standardization of opinion in various ideological camps to be more or less universal.

    I think Sanchez would say that, however insular the communication patterns in the liberal and libertarian camps, for the most part they do at least work with the same set of facts, and merely shut out outside arguments about their implications when run through each group's value set. His point is that unlike those two groups, conservatives have adopted their own set of basic facts about the world to the exclusion of the one the reality-based community deals with -- hence epistemic rather than merely ideological closure.
  • fredrik
    Does anything scream "epistemic closure" (as defined in the contemporary Sanchezian fashion) more than an appeal to the wisdom of *econ textbooks* in 2010? You have to be pretty damn far down the free-market rabbit hole to regard basic economic theory as the ne plus ultra of modern society, given what we've seen in the last several years. And of course, we have the reference to the Singaporean health care system as the icing on this insipid libertarian cake. (The news that Singapore's health care costs are rising significantly faster than ours seems not to have reached Bentley University, or Cato, for that matter.)

    Will, it's no surprise that you constantly compare American politics to high school... far too often, you write like you're still *in* high school. Half of the posts on this blog are brilliant, clear-eyed and nuanced; the other half sound like the brain-dead mutterings of a bitter outcast standing by the prom punch bowl. Smugness is fine (this is the Internet, after all), but your smugness never comes coupled with your intelligence. And for a guy who's good at pointing out the inanities of knee-jerk tribalism, you sure engage in a helluva lot of it. Posts like this are beneath a person of your talents.
  • Thomas
    And so the slurs, ad hominems and shaming begins. Low blows, but what could one expect?

    Let me guess, Fredrik admires a discredited 20th century ideology but thinks it hasn't been properly tried yet?
  • AFAIK--with the caveat that I'm a biophysicist and not an economist--the economists are aware of the shortcomings of current economic theory.

    Even were they not, "given what we've seen in the last several years" is usually oversold. Few things smell like smug left-wing epistemic closure (in the Sanchezian sense) more than that statement. They all *know* that something in the last several years blows a hole in economic science, but do not share what.

    What have you "seen in the last several years" that really defies explanation by modern economics. Not some cliche thereof, but rather by the state of the field in, say, Januray 2008. Do tell.
  • fredrik
    "the economists are aware of the shortcomings of current economic theory."

    We're in agreement -- bare-bones economic theory, on its own, is not a sufficient guide by which to live or govern. *So why are Sumner and Will still using it as the supreme yardstick for policy?* The claim here is not just that adherence to the lessons of economic textbooks is the right way to govern... it's that liberals BELIEVE that adherence to the lessons of economic textbooks is the right way to govern. Have you ever heard a single liberal advance this idea?

    "Even were they not, "given what we've seen in the last several years" is usually oversold. Few things smell like smug left-wing epistemic closure (in the Sanchezian sense) more than that statement. They all *know* that something in the last several years blows a hole in economic science, but do not share what."

    You're a biophysicist, I'm a TV writer -- I'm no more equipped to give a full diagnosis of the financial crisis than you are. And this crisis certainly wasn't a simple example of a market failure -- there were tons of complexities and quirks to the system, many of which were government-induced. But the folks who most proudly trumpeted basic economic lessons were aware of all these complexities and quirks in 2008, and 2007, and 2006... and with few exceptions, they trumpeted the resilience of this mutant market up until the very end. You don't see this as any kind of repudiation of using economic science as the sole important governing principle?

    "What have you "seen in the last several years" that really defies explanation by modern economics."

    "AFAIK--with the caveat that I'm a biophysicist and not an economist--the economists are aware of the shortcomings of current economic theory." --Bennett Kalafut

    You pre-emptively answered your own question.
  • urstoff
    This is really the nub of it. Apparently the recession has disproven mainstream economics (neoclassical? new Keynesian? I doubt they could even tell the difference), but such an assertion is itself one of ridiculous hubris. As far as I can tell, the causes of the recession are still being untangled, so it's certainly intellectually premature (and bordering on simply being dishonest) to say that the recession has widespread implications for any mainstream school of economics.

    There's a bit of a lesson of intellectual humility here. If the economists haven't quite figured out what caused it (or, more to the point, how to prevent such things), then the probability is exceedingly high that any of us non-economists don't know what caused it either or how to fix it. That includes assertions that mainstream econ has somehow been disproved.
  • fredrik
    "This is really the nub of it. Apparently the recession has disproven mainstream economics (neoclassical? new Keynesian? I doubt they could even tell the difference), but such an assertion is itself one of ridiculous hubris."

    That would, indeed, be an assertion of ridiculous hubris. It's also a complete straw man.

    The point is not that I or anybody can confidently perform an autopsy on the American financial system, or that we know how economic theory should change due to its lessons. The point is that *economic theory alone is not a sufficient basis by which to rule the world*, and that given that, it's not unreasonable to create some safeguards to protect people from the oscillations of economic forces we don't completely understand.

    That's not to say that liberals have all or even most of the right ideas about how to create those safeguards... I probably fall into the liberal camp more than any other, but I think a good number of widely held liberal policies are downright silly. But to suggest that liberals are aiming for perfect execution of what is suggested in economic textbooks is pretty ridiculous. You won't find many liberals out there who contend that the minimum wage is a good idea *according to economic theory*, for instance... those who support the minimum wage tend to realize that it's a distortion of economic principles, and think it's worthwhile anyway. You can disagree with them, and I might as well. But let's not invent fake motives for them just so we just snicker about how misguided they are.
  • urstoff
    I'm not sure who asserted that economic theory is a sufficient basis on which to make policy decisions. The old distinction between positive and normative economics has been with us quite a while. No need to re-tread that distinction. People can, of course, support minimum wage laws knowing full well that they might lead to unemployment. I think that would be an odd value system to hold, but they can do it nonetheless.

    But the question here isn't even about value systems, it's about claims to knowledge. I think everyone would like recessions to be prevented, but if the authority on why the recession happened (or why recessions in general happen) then we have no basis at all on which to make a decision. How can we regulate if we don't know what happened and what effects regulation will have? If the recent recession shows (somehow) that current economic theory is false (though I highly doubt that the existing regulatory structure in 2007 was anything remotely near what mainstream econ would claim the most efficient regulatory structure is), then we have no intellectual basis on which to make policy decisions. You can't regulate something successfully if you don't know how it works. The call, then, should be to figure it out first, and tread lightly with current regulation.

    The argument schematically:
    1. The only authority we have on how markets work is economics.
    2. If our authority on markets doesn't know how markets work, then we don't either.
    3. The recent recession has shown that economics doesn't know how (certain) markets work.
    C1 (from 1, 2, &3): We don't know how markets work.
    4. A necessary condition for successful regulation is an understanding of the object of regulation.
    C2 (from C1 & 4): Given our current state of knowledge, we do not now know how to successfully regulate markets.

    Both conclusions are basic deductive inferences. I regard premises 2 and 4 as fairly watertight. 3 is granted for the sake of discussion. 4 might be controversial but I'm not sure how.

    So I'm arguing C2, and asserting that if someone rejects C2 on either the basis of rejecting 2 or 4, then they are guilty of hubris. It seems like a rejection of 2 is the most common reason that people will reject C2. If they reject 1, it is incumbent on them to show why their authority is a genuine authority on markets and regulation.

    Basically, the challenge is: okay, so you think economics doesn't know what is going on. Then who does?
  • fredrik
    I agree with much of what you say here. However:

    1) I don't particularly see how it follows from the discussion in question. Will highlights and supports the wisdom of this statement from Sumner:

    "If you want to talk about epistemic closure, consider how few left-of-center intellectuals realize that the standard model of economics, even as presented in textbooks written by economists who are left of center, gives very little support for the great mass of government programs that are cherished by liberals."

    The subject in question is not "markets"... it's this "great mass of government programs". Sumner, and Will, and you, all seem to believe that the liberal ideology that underlies these government programs is predicated on market-centric economic theory, when it pretty clearly isn't.

    This is a classic libertarian trope, that liberals are just libertarians who don't understand markets very well. There are certainly people out there like that, but most liberals are *not* like that. Most liberals just don't believe that market forces are as vitally important, in as many areas, as you do. That's not to say that they're necessarily right... in a number of areas, I think they're dead wrong. But they do actually believe what they believe.

    2) If you throw your argument schematic at a number of liberals, they will read this component...

    "4. A necessary condition for successful regulation is an understanding of the object of regulation."

    ...far differently than you intend it. Your implicit presupposition is that the object of regulation is always "maximizing healthy market growth", and that one consequently needs to understand markets to proceed. Not everybody regards that as the primary goal in every situation. Some people who promote regulating derivatives or instituting leverage requirements, for instance, may not care at all about insuring strong market growth. Some may be willing to trade some growth for systemic stability. Some may even want to retard the industry so that the bright-eyed and bushy-tailed will go into other professions, or whatever the hell. You can disagree with those goals (I largely agree with the former one, largely disagree with the latter one), but you can't just pretend that everyone involved agrees that market health is of the utmost importance, every time out.

    3) Full, comprehensive knowledge of the ins and outs of every subtlety of financial markets -- something that we agree no human possesses -- is not actually necessary for certain types of regulation. We can be pretty sure of the main effect that, say, instituting a 15:1 leverage requirement will have... it's not exactly a Byzantine process. There *could* be adverse effects, like firms having less interest in doing business in the U.S. as opposed to elsewhere, but those effects, too, are not impossible to game out. It would take a pretty extremist Hayekian worldview to claim that we can't possibly know what a regulation like that would cause. (That's not to argue for or against that particular type of regulation, nor to assume that you're for or against it.)

    Your argument has a lot of Jim Manzi in it. And, well, I like Manzi. But this philosophy -- "we can not regulate something until we understand it completely, and we will never understand it completely" -- strikes me as a dodge. One is not often gifted with complete certainty in life... that doesn't absolve one from making decisions. And if we know that market forces can cause widespread calamity, we don't have to know much else to be justified in putting some bulwarks in place.
  • urstoff
    And note that this argument involves an extreme oversimplification of what economics as an inquiry actually is. But it's an oversimpilification adopted by the critics of 'economics'. Economics is hugely various. If the recession shows that economic theory has been disproved, one must say just which economic theory.
  • Hunter
    And another thing...
    (I know this next reference is hopelessly middlebrow, but whatever) Surowiecki in his Wisdom of Crowds makes the point that a certain level of trust is an essential prerequisite for functioning markets. Contract law is a last resort. If you have a problem with someone you're doing business with, you don't call them up and start quoting clauses of the contract. Not unless you want to sever the business relationship and end up in court. Without pervasive trust, the market will fracture, and we'll go back to doing business primarily with family members, or coreligionists, or whatever other tribal identities allow us to trust (you can already see this happening if you sit in a Starbucks and eavesdrop).
    And now, for some depressing evidence:
    http://www.alternet.org/economy/146674/10_ways_the_american_economy_is_built_on_fraud?page=entire
    Especially note the line in point six about the anomolously high rates of cheating amongst business school students.
    As these are issues that eat at the foundations of the market economy itself, they are not issues that can be expected to be 'handled' by the invisible whatever. Of course, given the rampant corruption in Congress, and the almost complete capture of the regulatory bureaucracy of the executive, I guess we're just screwed, but the idea that less government is the answer is just absurdly naive. Less complex government, maybe. Different government, better regulation, if possible. Or, if that's too tall an order, tear the whole thing down (including all the benefits of market capitalism) in order to make way to build it up again - NOT a course I even want to contemplate.
  • Hunter
    Well, on the one hand, the FDA or, more to the point, the SEC are government organizations that create their own clientelle, etc.
    On the other hand, Arthur Anderson and Moody's. And, wrt the FDA, check out The Poisoner's Handbook sometime.
    So it's not like anarcho-capitalism (or whatever is being advocated here) has any better answers for the very real problems of trust in a sufficiently large market system like ours.
  • I think the idea that we could just do without an SEC is insane.
  • urstoff
    As a philosopher, it drives me slightly batty to see the phrase "epistemic closure" being used in such an alien way. My mind usually thinks of it along these lines, http://stanford.library.usyd.edu.au/entries/closure-epistemic/ , so it takes me a while to comprehend what people are saying when they use it in such a non-standard way. Kind of like every use these days of "begs the question".

    Also, and only mildly orthogonal to the post, within philosophy it's really quite surprising the contrast between someone's epistemological views and someone's political views. Marxism is far too prevalent for a field that prides itself on careful thinking; likewise reactionary boycotts and impetuous name calling (see: any post on the Leiter Report). This surprise can be somewhat generalized to those on the left that appeal to authorities in science, but then dismiss authorities in economics.
  • MichaelDrew
    Sanchez has recently acknowledged the overlap in terms. I believe he claims he was not familiar with the existing meaning of the term in philosophy, but of course one is never sure that at some point that phrase wasn't thrown out in one's presence, making a subliminal impression. Writers of music have to deal with this all the time.
  • Hunter
    "This surprise can be somewhat generalized to those on the left that appeal to authorities in science, but then dismiss authorities in economics."
    The difference, of course, is that airplanes crash in ways so much more intelligible than economies.
  • Yeah, I'm certainly no philosopher, so I don't really what the phrase really means, but it's pretty obvious that when most people say it, (including me) they really mean "close-minded" or "unreceptive to ideas that contradict deeply held beliefs."

    That may or may not have been what Mr. Sanchez meant when he first used it (I think he said it wasn't) but I think it's what it ended up meaning.
  • stephen
    Well if you define liberal as "open minded" and conservative as "close minded" then yes, liberals are more open minded. But that would be silly.

    Any time someone makes a commitment to some set of ideological premises and axioms they have by definition closed their mind, to some degree, to any complimentary set. The only way it makes sense to claim that liberals are more open minded is if, statistically, liberals are less liberal than conservatives are conservative. Or less committed, if you will. I could be wrong but this has not been my experience.
  • d74
    I think you can justify the SEC's existence from an principal-agent market failure, no? Basically, while a firm has an incentive to maintain a reputation for not cooking the books, a CEO can make a killing in the short run and get out while the going's good, leaving a mess for someone else to deal with.

    Also banks runs. Seems like preventing them is a legitimate function of government.
  • Mommsen1625
    The counter-argument is that much of what government does encourages bank runs; the reasons for that are obvious. Since we've never had free banking in the U.S. (and Americans banks were never allowed legally to simply make contracts with depositors that could forestall or deflate bank runs) that argument has some merit.

    Anyway, there is a lot of this sort of thing in the financial sector; trying to protect people from their bad decisions; indeed even make them whole when those bad decisions lead to losses. The question then is which system leads to better outcomes.
  • Barry
    "The counter-argument is that much of what government does encourages bank runs; the reasons for that are obvious. Since we've never had free banking in the U.S. (and Americans banks were never allowed legally to simply make contracts with depositors that could forestall or deflate bank runs) that argument has some merit."

    IIRC, yes, we've had free banking in the USA, and yes, banks could make contracts with depositors. This was called 'the 1800's'. The result was indeed frequent bank runs.
  • Mommsen1625
    No, we've never had free banking in the U.S.; banks have always been subject to some sort of special regulation in the U.S. (for example, in the 19th century there was the common prohibition on branch banking) - if not at the federal level then at the state (this is even true during the so-called period of "free banking" in the U.S. - 1836-1861); even "wildcat banks" did not practice free banking. Note also that many (a majority?) of states required that state chartered banks back their notes with state bonds. And to the best of my knowledge those sorts of contracts were never legal in any state.

  • Thanks for the link to Sumner, Will. I wasn't familiar with his work. One thing though -- his blog posts sure are long! Sheesh.
  • y81
    I don't know much about the FDA or OSHA, but the SEC is certainly easy to justify from a relatively simple high school libertarian/Econ 101 perspective. In one paragraph:

    State enforcement of contracts is demonstrably wealth (or utility) enhancing. However, contractual agreements obtained through fraud or deceit are not wealth (or utility) enhancing. A difficult issue, with which judges in the common law tradition have struggled for centuries, is when and to what extent non-disclosure constitutes deceit, but nobody denies that in some cases, it does. Although common law incrementalism has its benefits, it creates uncertainty, and, therefore, in some areas, it is wealth-enhancing to have prescribed rules specifying exactly what disclosure is required, rather than leaving the issue to post hoc litigation. The SEC is the agency that prescribes those rules.
  • JMC
    This post reminds me of the famous statement by the New York intellectual (or was it a socialite?) who said she didn't understand how Nixon could have won because no one she knew voted for him....

    Anyway, I think the real legacy of the liberal welfare state will not be so much its influence on economics but on culture - the end of American apartheid, emancipation of women, and the reduction of the role of fundamentalist, authoritarian religion in our lives (Europe more than the US) is incalculable and, IMHO, for the good. Inglehart's work on the WVS suggests that this might not have occurred if the "existential security" provided by the welfare/regulatory state had not been in existence. The freedom that resulted from this cultural liberalization is, again IMHO, worth the economic efficiencies created by liberal political economy.
  • Kevin Drum
    I think it's wise to keep in mind that "market failure" defined in a narrow economic sense is not the only liberal justification for government interventions. Far from it, in fact.
  • Kevin, Of course. I took Sumner to be saying that he had no idea of how the other 90% of government interventions could be justified specifically in terms of things you would learn from an economics textbook.
  • Barry
    ". I took Sumner to be saying that he had no idea of how the other 90% of government interventions could be justified specifically in terms of things you would learn from an economics textbook. "

    Which, of course, could be (a) the fault of economics, or (b) the fact that 'economics texbook' usually means an undergrad course in micro.
  • Freddie_deBoer
    This is all argument through assertion, which is fine; there's little room for argument without a little "I think". I would say-- and you won't take this with charity, no matter how I say it, I think-- that your complaining about "self-satisfied superiority" is a bit hypocritical. I know you don't perceive yourself that way, because you are raging against a desperately wrong political apparatus, and against people who won't listen to reason, and if only everyone could understand how backwards some opinions are.... But I imagine you see my point.

    Now, me, I am surrounded by these liberal-leftist intellectuals who you have so much contempt for-- despite the fact that (it's true) you are far more like them than you might care to admit. I've grown up with them, I work with them everyday. And I am consistently surprised and impressed by how self-critical and open-minded they are. That's just my own anecdotal evidence, my own argument through assertion, but it is perhaps justified by a little more anecdotal evidence than you can generate. I don't know; perhaps, in fact, the truth is a little more fuzzy than you'd like to imagine.

    In any event, there is one and only one way for you to guarantee that you reduce the amount of self-satisfied superiority in the world, and that is to reduce your own ample supply. But then, that's hard, and a post like this is cheap and easy, only rivaled in cheapness and easiness by this comment of mine, by my entire corpus.
  • Freddie, I have no problem with self-satisfied superiority in others or in me. I was complaining about ignorant self-satisfied superiority.
  • Freddie_deBoer
    Ah! Well consider my comment withdrawn.
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