On Going Galt

by Will Wilkinson on March 5, 2009

I can’t help but feel that threatening to withdraw from economic production, ala Atlas Shrugged’s John Galt, is a certain kind of libertarian-conservative’s version of progressives threatening to move to Canada. For my part, I can’t imagine what would make me want to stop working, and each new president makes me want to move to Canada.

Despite my own inclinations, I’m among those who believe that labor supply is pretty sensitive to marginal tax rates, and I have no doubt that increasing the top marginal rate will make it so that some very productive people will quite rationally choose to produce less. But the effect comes from aggregating hundreds of millions of choices about the worth of an extra hour of work, not because the willing efforts of a small handful of productive geniuses are a necessary condition for ongoing economic production (and, therefore, civilization). Maybe vocally “going Galt” as a protest move is a useful way to put a dramatic face on optimal tax theory, but of course that’s not what folks who talk about it have in mind. They have morality in mind. And taxation is a moral issue, a matter of justice, and I’m glad Americans resist the idea that their government is entitlted to consume ever larger portions of their incomes. So I certainly don’t mind if a bunch of people declare they are “going Galt” if it reinforces healthy, deep-seated American norms about the injustice of excessive taxation.

But insofar as this is all about taxes on the wealthy (as the link to Malkin suggests) it’s a bit hard to see tax rates somewhat exceeding the Clinton era’s as a move over some inflection point from the tolerable to the completely outrageous. And of course none of these folks designed an engine that would have created basically free energy (and made global warming a non-issue). In the individual case, “going Galt” smacks of a kind self-aggrandizement in the same way that climate smuggery does. Because, really, your marginal contribution doesn’t matter that much.

By the way, Atlas buffs, the point of Atlas Shrugged is not that you are John Galt. The point is that you are not John Galt. The point is that you are, at your best, Eddie Willers. You’re smart, hardworking, productive, and true. But you’re no creative genius and you take innovation — John Galt — for granted. You don’t even know who he is! And this eventually leaves you weeping on abandoned train tracks. 

I think Obama’s policies will be bad for innovation, but not because higher marginal tax rates will lead our best and brightest to retire from the field of endeavor. I’m rather more worried that our best and brightest will follow the incentives and go Robert Stadler. I’m worried that our money, which might otherwise have gone to capitalize real innovation, will be confiscated in order to finance government directed “investment” instead. Our economy can readily absorb a passel of drop-out Willerses (though Eddie never quits!). It’s the misdirected capital embodied by the Stadlers and their Project Xes that really hurts.

  • I'll post the same information to my blog, thanks for ideas and great article.
  • Lindsey
    We are a small business in the 10 to 20 employee range. We offer a software program that has been translated into many languages and provides a real, useful and cost-saving tool to individuals and small shops worldwide that allows them to do work they would otherwise have to pay high rates to a specialist to do for them. My husband designed and developed this tool himself and he continues to work 7 days per week supporting it. He is very passionate about his "baby" and wants to be the best at what he does.

    We had originally planned to begin development of a companion product for another base of potential customers and would have had to increase staffing by about 25% to cover the effort. We would be making an investment of several years before we could reach the stage to begin to turn a profit on it, but I believe in the long run it would have been as successful as our original product. Perhaps moreso because the potential customer base is larger. Most important to me, it would have meant even more time commitment from my husband and I have been worried about his health for a long time now.

    Based on the plans for increased tax rates and the attacks on small businesses, we have given up the idea of introducing this new product line. Why take the risk of several years development cost? Why put in the extra effort when the results will be taken away? We have committed to each other to spend more time on our personal lives and have no debt at this point.

    Having said all of this, for us this change has an upside. I would much rather have more hours today and more years tomorrow to share with my husband and our children. Pulling back may be the best thing for him. But as a result, there will be fewer jobs out there and our potential customers will continue to pay expensive hourly rates for services which they might have been able to perform themselves.

    We are at the level where we will be most effected by the proposed tax increases. But we are just small-time. No corporate executives in fancy suits, flying around in fancy jets at our company. But there are tens of thousands of companies like us. If many of us end up making the same types of choices due to the disincentives for creativity, then what will the result for our economy be?
  • Brian
    Will:

    "Because, really, your marginal contribution doesn’t matter that much….The point is that you are not John Galt."

    What a nasty remark on your part. Who are you trying to convince - yourself, that others' quitting in protest won't affect you much - or everyone else, that they aren’t important enough to make a difference?
  • jackdoitcrawford
    I think business owners should "Go Galt" on tax day to protest the call to sacrifice, to show who is important to our everyday life, and that we will not tolerate tyranny. Shut down the economy for one day.
  • Strawman
    Absolutely. Business owners are important. Unlike pesky government employed teachers, police officers, firemen, and members of the military.

    I tell you what. You have all business owners take tax day off. I'll have all of these government employees take May 1st off. Let's see which day sucks more.
  • jackdoitcrawford
    Not fair. Have the regulators take off; people who decide who can and can't cut my nails, urban planners who hold up construction of everything and make it more costly, food inspectors who didn't prevent all the outbreaks of disease, censors who decide who can and can't have permission to broadcast on radio and TV. Then we will see which day is worse. Ayn Rand never advocated no police or military, although schools and fire departments should be privatized.
  • I read Atlas Shrugged decades ago and my recollection is fuzzy, but IIRC, the fictional employers in the story treated their workers very well. No doubt someone will correct me if I'm wrong about that. Regardless, my poor memory doesn't negate the fact that in the reality of corporate America, hardworking guys like Eddie Willers get outsourced at the drop of a hat.
  • Richard
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  • ap
    watch for me...i'll be the guy crashing the plane into your backyard.
  • John Galt
    That's it. I'm outa here.
  • Conor Friedersdorf
    I always thought it sounded a lot more fun to be Francisco d'Anconia than John Galt.
  • Joe R.
    Or Ragnar Danneskjöld.
  • SiliconValleyGuy
    "I’m worried that our money, which might otherwise have gone to capitalize real innovation, will be confiscated in order to finance government directed “investment” instead."

    As far as I can tell, for at least the past decade "our money" has gone not to capitalize real innovation, but for the creation of worse-than-useless financial instruments (and financial "experts") that have nearly destroyed our economy. 10, 20, 30 years ago the choice might have been to give our money to either "Bill Gates" or "the Government", but now the choice is apparently between "the CEO of Goldman Sachs" or "the Government". Given that choice, I choose "the Government". At least that way, we might get something useful (universal healthcare, high-speed rail, high-speed broadband to the home, etc.).
  • Of course nowadays the government is all too happy to hand our money to Goldman Sachs & similar, to the point where the government financial people are recruited from those exact companies & the decisions they make coincidentally help their corporate counterparts...

    I feel strongly tempted to respond to such a choice like you pose with "how 'bout neither?".
  • ap
    (universal healthcare, high-speed rail, high-speed broadband to the home, useless wars, bridges to nowhere, etc.)

    there added a couple to your rosy scenario of government action to make it more realistic
  • SiliconValleyGuy
    You know, if the government had spent the last five years confiscating the salary of everyone involved in creating and trading in CDOs and used the money to build bridges to nowhere, the economy would be better off today.

    Literally.

    I don't say that because I actually wish that had happened, but to try to illustrate just how phenomenally destructive Wall St. became.

    Look, the bridge to nowhere would have cost $400 million. But the Sept. 18 money market run nearly destroyed $5.5 trillion in wealth in a single day. The "John Galts" of the world very nearly burned down your neighborhood (and may still do so), but all you're worried about is that that fire station down the street may have too many fire poles.
  • jackdoitcrawford
    The John Galts of the world haven't ruined the economy. It is the Orren Boyles and the JimTaggarts who have ruined the economy, along with the Mr. Thompsons. Gotta read Atlas again.
  • uknowbetter
    So Bill Clinton is now John Galt?
    http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2009/02/oka_...

    This was a government caused problem that stupid banks got on board with. Next time the government demands actions of them, banks and corporations should tell them to go jump in the lake.
  • Mark
    I'm sorry, what law forced banks to write loans that could never be payed off? Clearly no one, since a few smart banks actually didn't make stupid loans.
  • Justin
    Yea, cause we all know how well the postal service, FDA, department of education, FBI, etc are run. In fact, why don't we just give all of our income to the government because gov experts know whats best for us even more so than we do. It will be perfect because we will all work to support our fellow man and we will have such cool momuments and such to boot... I hear Cuba is pretty nice this time of year.

    This is my first time reading anything on this blog, so I am honestly not sure what kind of 'bar' i stumbled into, but you might want to check out some stuff on the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. While you are at you can snoop around and see that much of the present crisis can be attributed to gov intervention (ie the FED), which caused an improper allocation of capital, and not so much the fault of the 'free market' as the mainstream media has you assume.
  • KJ
    Clearly you stumbled out a bar before writing your post. I love it how everything can be traced back to the big bad government. It's storytime in conservative land. Everyone gather around.

    Don't be so simple-minded. Sometimes government sucks and sometimes the free market sucks. Clearly both have sucked tremendously the past few years, but as much as I hate Bush, it's pretty clear that the blame for this financial crisis lies at the feet of the Jon Galt's bravely leading our financial sectors.
  • Justin
    The thing i find interesting is that you say the 'free market' sucks, but when have we ever had a truly free market? I realize that fact makes it hard to advocate it as an ideal because its never actually existed. However, it also makes it impossible to blaim this or any economic crisis on the free market. Is simple minded an insult? I view myself as being consistent and not willing to concede and inch to people who find comfort in the state's ability to use force in order to reward individuals who have no right to be rewarded. Be that bankers with a bailout or individuals who took on too much debt.
  • uknowbetter
    Nothing to do with Barney Frank, Chris Dodd, Bill Clinton, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac.

    Moooooooove along...nothing to see here.

    Here is a 1999 NYT article to make you less ignorant:
    http://www.thedonovan.com/archives/2009/02/oka_...
  • Justin
    The productive people that withdrew from society went to Galt's Gultch, but that does not mean they stopped 'working' and 'producing'. They decided to stop working for the moochers and looters. However, they never quit working for themselves. So, the dream is not to quit working and remain in this society, but to find some sort of secluded island somewhere that would only be inhabited by productive individuals.

    Of course, you would give up a lot of the conveniences of our advanced society, but it still has sort of a romantic feel to it, no?
  • uknowbetter
    Again, there are various versions that people are coming up with.

    I think moving from being a net producer to a net taker is fairly substantial:
    http://pursuingholiness.com/2009/03/going-john-...

    It's fairly simple to understand as well: just make under a certain income and you are helping to starve the beast.
  • KJ
    Would you give this up. Exactly zero people are going to do this including that nice christian girl you keep linking too. And besides, I'm pretty certain that she's already a net-taker. If she has money, it's because of a spouse or family. No way she helps our economy.

    Should our brave Galters leave their unproductive stay at home spouses if they have them? Talk about a drag on the productive. Whew!
  • uknowbetter
    Wow, typical condescending liberal crap.

    'No way a Christian girl could actually make money!'

    Keep shouting and screaming about how open-minded you are, maybe one or two fools will believe you.
  • KJ
    My Christian wife makes 6 figures. I was making fun of her fake piousness and the fact that her plan is really really stupid.
  • All of those I've read threatening to "go Galt" have my blessing.
  • Number 6
    MK-The government's contribution to each of those varies, and the necessity of those contributions is debatable. But even if we grant that the government was instrumental and essential in every one of those cases, Wilkinson's point about the general tendency of governments to misallocate capital stands. In other words, even if the government succeeds sometimes (and they do), it may still be inefficient at the macro level.
  • Exactly. The argument is that private sector investment tends to more effective than government investment, not that the return to government investment is zero. Increasing government investment does not kill innovation but tends to provide smaller returns relative to the private investment it has crowded out, leaving most of us worse off.
  • I personally like the old timey split:

    - government funds basic research, without patent
    - industry funds applied research, for patentable IP

    I think much of the confusion in modern policy comes from a muddying and mixing of those philosophies. With my old-time division, government funds thing too basic and scientific to be commercial any time soon, no crowding out, but a wellspring for future commericailzation.
  • uknowbetter
    The 'crowding out' is a capital consideration and does not go away if you wave a magic wand. If you take X dollars out of the private market and give it to government (for whatever: research, donuts, Obama hats), that is X dollars that can't be privately invested (where it is more efficient).

    The big anti-government argument that liberals don't seem to understand is that government is inefficient. They somehow think they have the magic want to make it efficient, but that is a fallacy. There are systemic issues why government can't be very efficient. Profit motive driving competition and innovation being the big one. Another is that the government likely won't go bankrupt; a company has to adapt and reach a certain level of efficiency or it goes out of business.
  • I get the economic term and know that I use it more generally.

    If you are simply worried about spending, then under my proposal you are worried about the amount, if any, the government should spend on basic, noncommercial, research.

    But if you go there, you should acknowledge that few in a mixed economy are likely to do that basic research. Much of it would probably migrate overseas.

    Now, in the non-formal sense, we do have a mess and different kinds of crowding now, don't we? As say universities and medical companies race for competing patents?
  • uknowbetter
    Do you think competition is bad?

    I am worried about every dollar the government takes from the private sector and puts into the public sector. Government is just not as efficient as the private sector.
  • I guess we're agreed that it is a bad investment for the public sector to compete with the private (or attempt it) then.

    The only time it's justified IMO is when the academics will put their results in the public domain, as the genome racers did.

    It also goes back to my feeling as a taxpayer that I should only pay once. If I fund someone's research, I don't think they should charge me for the resulting IP.
  • KJ
    Well, you'll end up paying for it anyway when the private company patents their product developed due to piggy-backing on your gov't funded research. But maybe I'm just being a smart ass.

    I can agree that private and public shouldn't compete. But of course we also need to identify correctly what public and private do better and not fetishize either one like many ideologues do, especially on the right. For instance, Student Loans, where we know that the government can do it much more efficiently than private banks. Or Air Travel where we've seen deregulation lead to better service and cheaper fairs. Or Health Care Insurance where we've witnessed our private system outperformed in quality and cost by our own public programs (Medicare and VA) and by countless other countries.

    The key is to identify who should handle what, and let them go about their business. In terms of research, I'd have to lean toward gov't here as the incentive to spend billions on crap like 4 redundant dick-hardening drugs tends to get in the way of researching things that might actually be useful for our society.
  • I'm assuming there would more of a fan-out, and less monopoly of IP when the underlying science is public domain. The companies would have patents, but competing ones, rather than say one licensee of some NASA tech owning the market.
  • Haha,

    Here the government is spending trillions of dollars to replace all the funds the private sector "misallocated" so the economy doesn't collapse and we still hear the chorus of phony praise of private markets.

    When will you guys accept the fact that capital markets are no different than Vegas, the trick is to collect the profits when you luck into a good bet and make others pay for all your losses?
  • Dan
    I should ignore a folk-Marxist statement like "capital markets are no different than Vegas," but I can't resist. If that's what you truly believe, alphie, then let's play a little game.

    I will put $100 a month in index funds, or some such diversified investment with exposure to the capital markets, and you can put $100 a month in an FDIC-insured savings account. Oh hell, if you really want to, I'll let you invest in Treasuries so you can earn a few percent. The winner of our contest gets a lucrative retirement 30 years from now.
  • Dan,

    People who invested in the stock market at its peak back in 1929 didn't break even until 1960, over thirty years later.

    What's your time line on this bet?
  • Dan
    I already said my timeline is 30 years, my estimate for a typical career. I assume your 1929 to 1960 statement refers to the graph of the DJIA or S&P or something like that. Those, of course, only track capital gains; they don't include dividend payments, which are usually a couple percent a year.

    Furthermore, I'm not talking about lump sum investments. Those indeed can be susceptible to the "random walk." We can leave that to the testosterone-laden Ivy leaguers on the trading desks. I'm talking about investing consistently over time and allowing the interest to compound. "The Snowball," the title of Warren Buffett's book (liberals are fans of Buffett, right?), is a metaphor for this effect.

    Really, my original point is this: put your money where your mouth is. If you believe that stock markets are a roulette wheel, then don't put any money in any equity, any 401(k), or any Roth IRA. Let it sit in an FDIC-insured account, and we'll see which one of us does better.
  • jackdoitcrawford
    He said Vegas. He should have to put his money in a lottery every month. :)
  • mk
    I’m worried that our money, which might otherwise have gone to capitalize real innovation, will be confiscated in order to finance government directed “investment” instead. Our economy can readily absorb a passel of drop-out Willerses (though Eddie never quits!). It’s the misdirected capital embodied by the Stadlers and their Project Xes that really hurts.

    I know. The government-assisted development of the computer, the internet, the human genome project, mobile ad-hoc networking, driverless cars, network-based collaborative computer systems, supercomputers, space exploration, radar, the Digital Library Initiative, nanotechnology, speech recognition, etc. are so useless and have so little to do with our economic advancements over the past century! Get out of the way, government!
  • What's the counterfactual?!
  • mk
    (1) At the least we have to concede that government-funded basic research is consistent with explosive technological growth.

    (2) It would be wise to pay attention to Chris's excellent rambling rant on where technology comes from. The main point is that government-subsidized basic research, for all its flaws, fills a vital hole because knowledge spillovers from basic research are a significant positive externality. Private companies rarely have the patience to think to themselves, "maybe I should engage in a decades-long, possibly-fruitless attempt to develop a revolutionary quantum computer." Any company that thinks like this will be eviscerated in the marketplace.
  • mk
    The exception I will mention here is that massive, extremely well-capitalized technology companies sometimes have the money to consider long-term research projects. Google, Xerox, Bell Labs (oops, now defunct), etc., do fund interesting research, through private capital.

    One problem with this model is that the companies have no incentive to share information with the broader research community, which can lead to such companies becoming "information sinks." Sometimes this doesn't happen in practice because the people who work on research think profit is grimy. But a well-run private research initiative won't share any more information than it needs to. Government funding for research, by contrast, typically carries with it an ethic of information sharing which maximizes the possibility of knowledge spillover.

    I think the ultimate question, as always, is empirical -- there are pluses and minuses on both sides. But I have a pretty strong belief that:

    1) There is a nonzero subset of especially long-term, risky technological research projects for which the standard economic logic regarding knowledge-spillover positive externalities is valid;

    2) Even for some of the slightly less risky (but still risky) stuff that could be funded by Microsoft or PARC or whoever, we need to consider the possibility that IP law and corporate logic will sometimes preclude desirable knowledge spillover.
  • uknowbetter
    For all you know, if government let people keep 50% more of their income there would be a hell of a lot more innovation. Those advances you cited are nice, but we might have 5 times that without the government sucking up capital.
  • broadstrokes
    Nah, our houses would probably just cost 5 times as much.
  • uknowbetter
    That's possible, but it's also possible they would cost 5 times as much and GDP would be 20 times as much.

    Do you think government is efficient?
  • Number 6
    Rand's creation of Objectivist Supermen helped make her novels compelling. At the same time, the focus on supermen created expectations that could be destructive to her followers. Although Rand herself stated that her characters were romantic ideals, and did not exists in real life (except for her and Branden....go figure), plenty of people who fell in love with Roark, Galt and the rest also excoriated themselves for not living up to those standards.

    Of course, others just grow out of the Rand phase.
  • Paul McMahon
    “But insofar as this is all about taxes on the wealthy (as the link to Malkin suggests) it’s a bit hard to see tax rates somewhat exceeding the Clinton era’s as a move over some inflection point from the tolerable to the completely outrageous.”

    When you consider the effects of lifting the income limit on payroll taxes and limiting deductions on charitable contributions (only the first such limitation of many more to come I expect), along with the return to Clinton-era marginal income tax rates, the Obama fiscal burden may be more onerous than you think.

    More important though, the inflection point we’re faced with may not be with respect to marginal tax rates at the highest level, but rather, as <A HREF=" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123629969453946... "> Michael Boskin points out
    in today’s WSJ, with respect to another aspect of Obama’s agenda – the use of refundable “tax credits” (or what I would call “welfare”) to push over 50 the percentage of our population that are net receivers of government largess. A dangerous tipping point in a democracy.
  • Going Galt works in Atlas Shrugged because the handful of "real producers" are several orders of magnitude more competent than (essentially) everyone else.

    In the real world, however, competence is more uniform - if John Galt is 100% productive, there are lots of people who are 99% productive, etc.

    For me, this is one of the major flaws in AS (that, and the complete lack of any realistic comprehension of children) - there are always people willing to step up and who are capable of doing a pretty good job.

    If we killed off (or jailed or exiled) the most productive 1% of the population, the economic output would drop, but it would not go to zero, or negative. And in a few years, younger folk who were growing into their most productive years would step up and fill in the gaps. John Galt is immortal, because he is fictional. In the real world, people get old and their productivity declines.

    Also - If you're already making $1 million/year, being reduced to $900,000 by government fiat seems like a terrible thing, and you might abandon the system (stop producing). But for the person 5-10 years younger than you, who hasn't ever made more than $100,000, that $900,000 looks pretty frakkin good! It's all relative.

    And you're totally right, Will - we are all Eddie Winter, at best. But if Dagny abandons Taggart Transcontinental, is it unreasonable to assume that Eddie could run the railroad, at least moderately competently?
  • BTW, I did bank some of the dot com bubble, and I did manage not to lose it in this latest market crash. When you go public and exercise your options ...

    Well actually let me stop there and tell you what I really saw. I figured that the way it worked, if you wanted to secure your gains you had to do 1-day sales, and pay the tax. (Such options when sold in 1-day sales are taxed as ordinary income, and if you have enough of them at the top marginal rate.) I did that. I sold my options, paid a an income tax bill that dwarfs my normal years before or since. (The Clinton-era rate.)

    Here's where marginal rate impacts the real world and real decisions ... many of my co-workers worried that they didn't want to pay the tax, so the exercised the options for ownership, to hold for the lower tax rate of long term capital gains. Poor guys. They paid tax on the value of the option executed. And then held as the dot com bubble crashed. They avoided tax .. by avoiding income.

    We all did our "innovation" but some of us were afraid to book the gains.

    I don't think the answer is to move the top marginal rate a point or two in an attempt to ally people's fears. I think the answer is for entrepreneurs to be fearless. Make your money, and pay your tax.
  • uknowbetter
    It's not about being fearless, it's about a cost-benefit analysis. Many businesspeople are sensible and realize they aren't going to get rich quick overnight with their business.

    You may claim these people aren't innovators, but you are wrong. Maybe of them do innovate on a consistent basis.

    Why go through the hassle of starting your own business with so many obstacles in the way when you know you only stand a decent chance of slow growth and an even smaller chance of exceptional growth?
  • Do you need to read some Winner's Curse? I found that book very instructive as I saw the strange decision making (anomalies) going on around me.

    And no I did not say they were not innovators. I said "We all did our 'innovation' but some of us were afraid to book the gains." It was very Winner's Curse.

    "Why go through the hassle of starting your own business with so many obstacles in the way when you know you only stand a decent chance of slow growth and an even smaller chance of exceptional growth?"

    Try to remember what we're talking about here. People acting as if a couple points of marginal rate are the difference between Heaven and Hell.

    Heh. Maybe you aren't making a rational cost-benefit analysis and are suffering an anomaly? A fear out of proportion with actual marginal costs?
  • uknowbetter
    Do you actually believe that people are talking about a few points of marginal rate?

    These increases will not even come close to paying for all of Obama's spending. He is lying when he says that. It's fairly easy to see through. That's what really worries people.
  • Yes, I do. If it turns out to be more than that I'll have to admit my error.
  • uknowbetter
    LOL! Do you actually believe that Obama is telling the truth and that these increases in taxes will pay for his increases in spending?

    Lord knows, I am never shocked by the power of delusion, but you seem like you have more sense than Forrest Gump and should be able to add 2+2.
  • I see a lot of people assuming they know the net cost of the bailout, and then assuming relatively short payback periods. If we assume, say, 10 years or 15 years to pay down this debt, what does that do to marginal rates?

    This crisis is a major event, like the Great Depression, or WWII, and it won't be balanced in a year or two.
  • uknowbetter
    I'm not saying it will be, but Obama definitely seems to act like these 'taxes on the rich' will pay for everything.

    That is some sort of lying. Either to the American people or to himself.
  • As someone who has done tech startups, I can tell you I did it to get really rich, so much so that tax rates didn't matter. Isn't that true of the kind of "innovation" entrepreneurs of which you speak?

    To anyone looking to hit the long ball, its about the opportunity, not small differences in taxes.

    There are other sorts of entrepreneurs who seek to run tidy small businesses, to hit single after single. Those to make their money at small margins and might feel more of an impact. That does matter, to them and to the general economy

    ... but as an "innovation" thing? It seems more and more like an artificial issue, a focal point created for the politics of it.
  • uknowbetter
    Will, did you see this example of Going Galt?
    http://pursuingholiness.com/2009/03/going-john-...

    Her idea is to be stop being on the net producer side of the income scale.
  • KJ
    "I’m among those who believe that labor supply is pretty sensitive to marginal tax rates, and I have no doubt that increasing the top marginal rate will make it so that some very productive people will quite rationally choose to produce less."

    This is why I always disagree with you guys. This strikes me as clearly wrong. But I'm willing to be challenged here. What makes you think this is true? It seems to assign a sort of super rational irrationality to the rich. By that I mean they would not only accept less income due to the tax increase but they would then proceed to choose to make even less money by working less. It seems at least as likely that people would work more to make up for the lost income. No?
  • William
    KJ,

    The key is to understand the difference between changes in marginal and average tax rates. Increases in marginal tax rates (with average rates remaining constant) tend to reduce labor supply, because the cost of leisure, relative to labor, has decreased. Since leisure is a normal good, a decrease in its relative cost tends to increase the amount consumed. Increases in average tax rates (with the marginal rate remaining constant) should induce the effect you identify, which basically says that increased taxes makes people feel poorer, inducing them to increase labor supply. Your statement focuses on the income effect of changes in labor earnings and ignores the substitution effect (of leisure for labor).

    Of course, when both marginal rates and average rates go up, the overall effect is ambiguous and it becomes an empirical question as to which effect is stronger.
  • Kj
    Thanks for the response although I'm not hearing anything that wasn't convincing in the past. The relative cost of leisure decreasing has always seemed like smart people applying straight economic theory where it simply doesnt apply well. Perhaps there is evidence supporting this? I would bet that there is quite little or none. My experience with human nature tells me the leisure cost effect is quite small at least until marginal rates get over 50%. Rates are too low right now for people to hyperventilate about it.
  • William
    You may be right that rates are too low to have much of an effect right now. This obviously is one of the questions that separates right-leaning and left-leaning economists. And it is inherently difficult to measure, which is why it still separates them. Another thing that makes it difficult to measure is that taxes can be avoided. Analysis of changes to tax rates tends to assume that the tax rates are given. But, of course, the complexity of our tax code makes it pretty easy to avoid them. One way to avoid them is to work less. Another way is find creative ways to hide the money. Higher marginal rates provide more incentive to do this as well. If tax loopholes were not so easy to exploit, particularly for the wealthy, the effect on the labor-leisure trade-off might be greater.
  • KJ
    Good point.
  • uknowbetter
    Why work more? They can live on what they make. They will just end up with more leisure time. Why work 60 hours a week on your small business when you can work 30 hours and still do ok? Instead of driving that business and employing 50 people, they will be happy will slower growth and 20 employees. 30 jobs go bye-bye.
  • Kj
    This is a completely unsatiafying response. Your answer applies before and after any tax hike. Based on other responses I've seen from you it seems you really haven't thought about it much.
  • uknowbetter
    It does apply before and after, but the issue is that as you lower incentives for innovation and working hard, people will innovate less and work less. That is going to be a different cut-off for different people. Small businesses are getting slammed with the economy and now Dear Leader wants to raise their taxes? That attitude is behind a number of people throwing in the towel and saying they have had enough.

    I don't think the dems have thought about what happens when you go after the people who actually produce.
  • KJ
    But you greatly overestimate this effect. We're talking about a couple thousand dollars a year max for someone making 300-350K depending on deductions. You really think they'll throw in the towel. Anyone who would throw in the towel over that, probably shouldn't be trusted doing whatever they are doing for that kind of money. This argument is really really unconvincing.
  • "By the way, Atlas buffs, the point of Atlas Shrugged is not that you are John Galt. The point is that you are *not* John Galt. "

    Though I've never read AS, this strikes me as highly likely as a claim about the book, and profound and important as a claim about the way the book is almost always read.

    It's also funny as hell.
  • You've never read Atlas Shrugged? And you're opining about it?? That's like listening to the Pope talking about sex!

    It's also funny as hell.
  • dgm
    This post makes me see those "Eddie Would Go" bumperstickers in a whole different light.
  • Paul O'Pinion
    But I'm VERY confident that tax rates are in excess of necessity.

    Absolutely the most concise, honest and straightforward statement of the situation that Americans are in today.
  • JAS
    Will, I'm curious (genuinely, not rhetorically) as to how you consider taxation levels to be a matter of justice, given your own previous arguments (if I'm characterizing you correctly) that it's nonsensical to speak of "deserving your income." By that logic, while the government is not entitled to our money, neither are we. Excessive taxation, then, could still possibly be a moral wrong due to the harm it causes, but I don't see how it could be a moral wrong in terms of justice.
  • There's a subtle distinction that's easy to miss between not deserving your income level and not deserving your income. If I sign a contract with Bob to dig a hole for $50, and I dig a hole, then I deserve $50 from Bob. But there is no sense in which I deserve the conditions under which Bob would agreed to $50. In a more competitive market, Bob might offer no more than $35. If I accept and dig the hole, then I deserve $35 from Bob.

    As a matter of justice, the state may take no more in taxes than is necessary to perform its legitimate functions. More than that is excessive. I don't take this to have anything to do with desert. But I'm VERY confident that tax rates are in excess of necessity.
  • JAS
    This analogy may be a little wild, but here's a thought. I agree we don't deserve the conditions under which we contract, but that means Bob could offer me a guitar to dig the hole, or all the food in a 100 mile radius. Just a matter of what his conditions allow him. But claiming I deserve - as in, have total proprietary power over - the guitar is a far different matter from claiming the same over the food. Claiming it over the guitar hurts no one, while claiming it over the food will probably result in lots of people starving. So even if the contracting was perfectly fair under both circumstances, I wouldn't say the two are morally equivalent.

    And how much money we contract for seems much more analogous to the food than the guitar. Money means food, shelter, education, health care, etc, so money is something people need a steady and constant supply of. I realize trade is not zero sum, we can grow the economic pie larger, etc, so it shouldn't matter how much another guy is getting, since it's still possible for me to get more. But the total pie still remains only so big at any given time, so questions of just distribution within the pie at that time increment still strike me as valid. If I'm poor and sick now, the chance that wealth will grow and in five years I won't be poor is of little help. And then there's the question of whether there are limits beyond which the pie cannot or should not grow.
  • cvd
    The point is not that people would entirely cease to work - the point is that they would cut back at the margin.

    If enough people cut back by a small amount, the consequences for tax receipts would be tremendous.
  • Alan Gunn
    Clinton-era tax rates aren't going to pay for the spending spree we've been on for the past month and a half, and certainly not for the coming rounds of bailouts, "free" medicine, and the like. I know the President talks about restoring the old rates, but he also said he was going to reduce government spending.
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