What Policy Can Do for Growth and What Politics Won’t

by Will Wilkinson on March 3, 2009

Yglesias’ valiant attempt to show how Obama’s big schemes are all connected by the thread of economic growth works mainly as an illuminating exercise in free association. The thread that in fact holds them together is that there are major constituencies within the Democratic Party that want them. Most of the time, that’s how politics works and Matt often displays a fine appreciation of that fact when it comes to Republican policy initiatives. Anyway, I’d like to comment on this bit of Matt’s post:

[P]erhaps the most important things policy can do to impact the capacity for sustainable growth—i.e., growth that’s not based on asset price bubbles—is to increase the availability of high-quality human capital and the availability and quality of public sector physical capital. Which is to say education and infrastructure.

I agree that human capital and physical infrastructure are crucial to growth. I’m even happy to agree that government investment in education has more than paid for itself over the years in added growth. But I also think the evidence points to the idea that returns to public investment in the status quo system of education have diminished to basically nothing. No Democrat is going to do anything to run afoul of their party’s most powerful client in order to promote the deep structural changes needed in primary education to actually improve the quantity and quality of American human capital. So instead we get free money for college, which is Obama’s way of saying “thank you” to the loyal, powerful bloc of Democrats who make their living pouring valuable human capital into nineteen-year-olds by making them pretend to have read Plato and Beloved

As for energy infrastructure, we really could use a “smart grid” that allowed for real-time pricing of energy based on demand. (See Lynne Kiesling on the “transactive” potential of the smart grid.) Markets are known to be the best mechanism available for efficiently allocating resources, and putting in place an infrastructure for pricing energy would be good for growth and the environment. Just before the bit quoted above, Matt allows that:

There are a lot of factors behind growth including, of course, old fashioned human ingenuity at coming up with new products to offer and new ways to offer old products.

But Matt evidently thinks policy can’t do much about this. One thing policy can do is to make markets possible, so that there are rewards to ingenuity. That can mean making an illegal market legal, or making a legal market worth investing in by lowering the burden of regulation. Another thing it can do is to restructure intellectual property law to encourage rather than discourage invention. Another thing it can do is not crowd out private investment in innovation, which is the opposite of what Obama plans to do in education, energy, and health care. When I talked to Nobel Prize-winner Edmund Phelps, an expert in failed European attempts to spur growth by subsidizing technological advance and no right-winger, he seemed pretty worried that a lot of new infrastructure spending (much of which will be flat-out unecessary and unproductive) and targeted government spending on “green” technology would in fact adversely affect incentives to innovate. I don’t think he’s wrong to be worried. Matt thinks entrepreneurship is an empty business buzzword, but it is in fact the foundation of economic growth. 

I will rejoice the day either Republicans or Democrats find that their interests align with the general good and plump for a serious set of pro-growth initiatives. Until then, I’ll expect the usual constituency service.

  • Matt thinks entrepreneurship is an empty business buzzword, but it is in fact the foundation of economic growth.

    This is the critical insight that is missing from the vast majority of the discussion of US economic problems in the media.
  • Nathan
    "Another thing it can do is to restructure intellectual property law to encourage rather than discourage invention."

    Could you expand on this? This seems like a "liberaltarian" talking point. Liberals want to reduce prescription drug cost, Libertarians want less government intervention and a more rational approach to encouraging innovation.
  • Dan
    "...the loyal, powerful bloc of Democrats who make their living pouring valuable human capital into nineteen-year-olds by making them pretend to have read Plato and Beloved."

    Well said. I know it's apostasy these days, but I think far too many people are getting pushed into college, where their time is often spent learning things with zero applicability to their future careers. Unfortunately, the "everyone goes to college, no matter the cost" mentality seems to be only growing stronger.
  • Wilkinson:

    > ...promote the deep structural changes needed in primary education to actually improve the quantity and quality of American human capital...

    But the fact remains that when businesses hire, a person having gone to a private primary school or a charter primary school (as opposed to a public primary school) commands no higher wages. I hire; the issues affects me personally. If the private school or charter school had a document certifying modern workforce training to the student (with the ability to test to confirm, and retrain at no cost to the business if the skills are actually below what is certified), I would be pretty damn impressed. If such a thing exists for private or charter schools, it is well hidden and very scarce. Until then, why would a business pay a premium for a person who received primary school education at a private or charter school? And if public school is good enough, how can change be expected to happen?

    Dan:

    > ...I think far too many people are getting pushed into college...

    Business do pay a premium for college educated students. Again, if there was a form of technical schooling (associate degree) that had some certifying/testing/retraining guarantees for work skills, businesses would be pretty damn impressed, and would hire those people above people with some college education. I would like to see such resumes.
  • Manuelg, it's true that a college education commands a premium, but that doesn't mean the college is actually making the student more productive. I suspect most of the premium is attributable to signaling of pre-existing quality. The student who graduates proves that he is relatively persistent and does the busy work. But there are surely cheaper ways of performing the signaling function than encouraging everyone and his dog to go to college in order to see who pops out the other side.
  • Vangel
    What we have is an example of failed ideology. The bottom line is that interventions will not work and the only policies that will help are those that reduce the size of government and remove arbitrary burdens placed on private economic activity.
  • DMonteith
    ...targeted government spending on “green” technology would in fact adversely affect incentives to innovate.

    I confess that I'm having a hard time figuring out just what the Obamanator could do to "adversely affect incentives to innovate" that would be worse than this.
  • forkthis
    Worse than the decline in oil prices? See here. Are you implying that "innovation" means "green"?
  • DMonteith
    My point is that for green technology, "incentives to innovate" (or, if you prefer, high oil prices) have gone south for the recession. I'm failing to see how Obama's plans, as I understand them (and, since I don't have adequate incentives to read budget proposals, I'm quite possibly misinformed), will affect these incentives one way or another because they are currently almost non-existent. Presumably, the idea is to maintain existing green tech capacity (such as it is) until such time as economic recovery raises oil prices and the incentives return from vacation to pick up where they have left off. A better idea, of course, would be to rejuvenate the incentives through a carbon tax, but I digress.

    Furthermore, the idea that government spending would crowd out private investment right now is laughable, as the chart I linked to amply demonstrates. Not exactly a textbook illustration of investors straining to get a foot in the door is it?
  • forkthis
    I understand. If, in fact, Obama's green energy proposals are technology neutral, then I think it's safe to say that his proposals will not crowd out private investment in green technology. In fact, given state backing, it should encourage private investment.

    I think the concern (and the thrust of my prior comment) is that the government's notion of green technologies may not be the most innovative technologies. That is, he's already picked the winners, and now it's all about doling out the cash (e.g., the Stimulus Bill significantly extended the Renewable Energy Grant Program -- you build windmills and the government will pay you directly). This strikes me as something different than innovation.

    By way of example, it could be that some new form of nuclear energy (I don't know shit about nukes) could be the most innovative and safe solution, but who's going to invest in nuclear when the government is handing out cash to wind and solar developers?
  • Steve C
    Yglesias is kind of talking out of his ass. I think there's a half-decent point in there, but man when political scientists start wading into economics it's cringe-inducing. And don't get me started on the pretentious writing style (this post was better than most).

    Ezra Klein is pretty good at this - he comes at these subjects with a Hillary/Gore level of wonk detail, that sort of makes up for the lack of econ background.
  • The People
    Our call for a Ygleisas v. Wilkinson battle royale has gone unheeded. Once again, we must demand a 2-hour bloggingheads deathmatch!
  • "I will rejoice the day either Republicans or Democrats find that their interests align with the general good and plump for a serious set of pro-growth initiatives."

    They already have.

    The Republicans and the Democrats are re-capitalizing the banks, who will turn around and carefully lend that capital out to the most promising entrepreneurs in America!

    Right, right?
  • JB
    Obama is a whore who puts out for his clients.

    We've already established what he is, the rest is just a discussion of his prices.
blog comments powered by Disqus

Previous post:

Next post: