I Find Myself Agreeing with My Own Assumptions More Often Than Not

by Will Wilkinson on November 17, 2008

Over at Obsidian Wings, Hilzoy has posted a long and, to my mind, rather muddled meditation on my last post about the Detroit bailout.

The charge is that is that I’m arguing against a “let’s regulate everything” position no intellectually serious person now holds. Not to say we’re all Friedmanites now. Recognizing various “market failures” — negative externalities, collective action problems, agency problems, etc. — serious people see the need for regulation. But now we take it on a more case-by-case basis. That said, “I find myself arguing in favor of more regulation more often than not,” Hilzoy admits. She goes on:

Now, however, the pro-regulation camp has more or less vanished, leaving mostly people (like me) who think these questions should be decided on a case-by-case basis, and that there is no general reason for favoring regulation over its absence, arguing against free market fundamentalists who often write as though all regulation were presumptively bad.

So, I take it that the position is that there is no “pro-regulation camp,” since to be in that camp would be an intellectual embarrassment, given the strides in the social sciences. Instead of a pro-regulation camp, what we have are people who happen to find themselves “arguing in favor of more regulation more often than not,” when they take it on a “case-by-case basis.” I’m afraid I find this distinction… subtle.

But there is a distinction, the core of which appears to be an aversion to appealing to principles or useful generalization. “Pragmatism” rings of openminded practicality, but it is also a convenient hideout for anti-theorists and denialists. There is nothing about the spillover effects and coordination problems Hilzoy mentions that ought to make one hesitate to argue from principle. As I emphasized in a debate about the minimum wage several years ago, economic laws — like the laws of all the “soft” sciences — hold other things equal. If you think other things are not equal, and the generalization does not hold, then it is incumbent upon you to cite the principle of exception (e.g., this market is a monopoly, monopsony, transactions costs are too high, etc.) and provide evidence that it applies to the case at hand.

But there is no special complexity in this case. You do not learn superspecial exceptions in upper-level graduate economics courses to the otherwise reliable generalization that it hurts people a lot more than it helps them to direct ever greater economic resources to those who are especially good at wasting them. And it’s not even clear what it has to do with “regulation” in the usual sense. The Detroit bailout is exactly what it looks like: a huge subsidy to several remarkably inefficient but politically well-protected firms. As a matter of economic theory, there is no reason the U.S. needs to make cars at all. As it happens, the U.S has an incredibly skilled labor force good at making complex things like cars, and it makes a hell of a lot of them very well and very efficiently. It’s just that the companies mostly responsible for this are not headquartered in Detroit. If Hilzoy doesn’t think this enormous piece of corporate welfare for the makers of a few classic and once-beloved American brands is “presumptively bad,” then I’d really like to know what she thinks is. Despite the alleged demise of the “pro-regulation camp,” way too many people seem, if not reflexively pro-regulation, then a bit too arbitrarily skeptical of things that are very, very well-known.       

If I’m not accused of being callous for pointing out that a smaller amount of preventable suffering is better than a larger amount, I am accused of being a market fundamentalist who is too blithely dogmatic to become curious about the special particularities of this case. Yet nothing principled or particular is offered in return other than some riffing from a health policy specialist (who no doubt also often finds himself arguing for regulation more often than not) and a report from a Michigan-based think tank called the Center for Automotive Research. Hilzoy grants she has no special competence to assess these claims. But, at the same time, one is left with the distinct sense that she is inclined to grant them as much weight as is necessary to continue believing that throwing money in bonfires while wishing for ponies is a public policy stance everyone but blinkered market fundamentalists should at least consider seriously.

  • I don't agree that US can stop making cars. They should stop making bad decision that what I think. If they plan to make cars for export. The economic may go back to normal.
  • Jeffrey
    Tim, My guess is that ultimately determining which would be worse, the bailout or the bankruptcy, is impossible in any meaningful sense. There are simply two many variables and second order effects to pin down. As that's a wash, I think it's fair to say free market principles thus argue for bankruptcy. But I also thought Cohn's was a good faith effort to explain why those principles don't apply in this case. (And to my mind Manzi did an impressive job of dispensing with Cohn's arguments.) So it's worth noting that even you're arguing Will didn't need to respond to Cohn's piece by... responding to Cohn's piece.

    Pedro, I stand corrected on "cojones." Beg your pardon. What I get for trying to be too clever myself.
  • dWj
    Toyota pays for Japanese workers' heathcare through taxes, directly on itself and indirectly on employees, etc.

    The market failure I see in the financial markets right now is a coordination problem: a lot of investors might well believe that they could earn a sufficiently safe return on investment on a sustainable basis lending money to more borrowers provided everyone else was doing the same thing, but there's a generalized fear of being the last one out if everyone else quits lending. This sort of coordination problem can be solved by government, with the attendant difficulties that you then have government attempting to discern who is long-term solvent and who isn't. (Treasury, at least publicly, seems to agree; they're reserving money for solvent banks, not ones they deem weak.)

    How does this affect the automakers' destruction of capital? Marginally. They may find it even harder to line up funding than they deserve to. Almost all of their problem, though, is more internal. This does, though, suggest a role for the government in providing DIP lending. I hope we get it; I think the politically likely alternatives are far worse.
  • Penry
    ish:

    "The UAW has been intractable and has seemed to not care overmuch if the concessions it demanded drove the automakers into bankruptcy. From a personal, historical, and emotional standpoint, it isn't hard to understand why the UAW would have felt they were in a highly adversarial position (what with the Battle of the Overpass and such), but by now they certainly should realize they are in danger of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs."

    I suspect the UAW's bargaining stance is driven by the assumption that Washington will always bail out the goose. Do not expect the unions to care about the profitability of their members' employers until one of the geese actually dies.
  • Jeffrey and Pedro, I agree that Will could stand to be a little bit less glib, but I'm hard pressed to find any specifics in Cohn's piece worth responding to. His argument appears to be (1) the collapse of the Big Three would create hardships for those firms' employees, shareholders, and suppliers and (2) these firms may have been dysfunctional in the past, but they're in the process of turning things around.

    Point (1) is undoubtedly true, but if we intervened in every bankruptcy that created a hardship for someone, no firm would ever go out of business and we'd wind up in a state of crony capitalist stagnation. Yes, a Detroit collapse would create hardship for more people than the average bankruptcy, but bailing them out will cost significantly more as well.

    I'm not an expert on the auto industry, but point (2) strikes me as almost certainly nonsense. Every management team facing bankruptcy has a nice story about how if they can just raise more capital they'll be able to turn things around. Once in a while that's true, but usually it's not. Again, there's no reason to think that the Big Three's turnaround story is any more believable than those of dozens of smaller firms that will go bankrupt in the coming months without any prospect of a government bailout.

    So which of Cohn's arguments, specifically, does Will need to respond to, and what would constitute a satisfactory response? Obviously, a Big Three collapse would be a bad thing. Squandering $25 billion would also be a bad thing. I don't see anything in Cohn's piece that helps us understand which of these things would be worse, which makes it a pretty underwhelming argument.
  • ish
    Addendum:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087...

    Not a specific criticism of you, Will. But I've seen this all over the various blogs and discussions about how wonderfully run Toyota is and the problem being that GM isn't more like them. Meanwhile, Toyota is losing money, mainly due to selling too many "large" vehicles in the US.
  • ish
    Its quite overemphasized I think how poorly run the Detroit automakers are. There are several culprits for their problems.

    The UAW has been intractable and has seemed to not care overmuch if the concessions it demanded drove the automakers into bankruptcy. From a personal, historical, and emotional standpoint, it isn't hard to understand why the UAW would have felt they were in a highly adversarial position (what with the Battle of the Overpass and such), but by now they certainly should realize they are in danger of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.

    The second obvious difficulty comes from the fact that all foreign competitors have nationally subsidized health care systems. Of course this isn't free money, but it certainly gives them an advantage when competing with a company that must provide health care for its workers and retirees. I'm not offering any solutions for the US here, merely saying that it is an important factor.

    Next of course is management. And I'd agree that most of the Big 3 have been highly reactive rather than proactive. But its important to note that a lot of the criticism I've seen is highly dependent on hindsight. Many of the critics act as though it was obvious in 2004 that companies should only make fuel-efficient cars. But if one actually goes back to that time, you will find Toyota and Nissan introducing full-size trucks and SUVs. In many ways, the Big 3 got into this mess by responding to the market, which demanded these large gas hogs until fuel prices caused these markets to tank. And this falling tide has lowered all ships: Take a look at Toyota which just today may have its credit rating lowered.

    Certainly the Big 3 aren't "well-managed". But I suspect their misfortunes have as much to do with a global financial panic and American regulatory structure as they do with management. There are lots of companies that are not managed very well, which are nonetheless not about to go bankrupt.

    All that said, I'm not entirely convinced a bailout is necessary. I think there are still enough good vehicles and engineering know-how in these companies that a private solution may yet emerge. I just think those who claim this is entirely the result of terrible management haven't really paid any attention to the actual market.
  • pedro
    Jeffrey, it's "cojones," not "cajones." (Pet peeve.)

    Will- I think publius' post at Obsidian Wings was an abject personal attack on you, and it was a bit disappointing to see Hilzoy (someone whom I admire and respect) not disassociate herself from the charges of callousness more forcefully in her own post. However, I agree with Jeffrey that your response is a bit dismissive and, to my mind, not very thoughtful. I don't blame you: after being called callous, it is only human to react the way you have. Wish that the internets were a bit less disagreeable!
  • Jeffrey
    Will, regardless of whether her argument ultimately holds, Hilzoy's post struck me as perfectly lucid. Calling it "muddled" takes some cajones, particularly after all that faux-poetic business about the sparrows. Also, it seemed to me one of her central points was that the particularities in favor of this specific bailout HAVE been offered, primarily by Cohn's peice. As this is exactly what you called for as a response to the general free market principles which weigh against the bailout, don't you think Hilzoy and your other interlocutors are at least entitled to a response to those particulars? Certainly something a bit more substantive than a one-sentence cheap shot suggesting Cohn should stick to his field of expertise. And you wonder how they got the idea that you're blithely dogmatic... Perhaps you should have just linked to this Jim Manzi post and called it a day.

    http://theamericanscene.com/2008/11/17/detroit-...
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