Equal Chances for Equal Talent

by Will Wilkinson on October 24, 2008

The first part of Rawls’ Second Principle of Justice says, in Joshua Cohen’s words, “people who are are equally talented and motivated are to have equal chances to attain desirable positions, so far as this is consistent with maintaining equal basic liberties…”

This has always thrown me for a loop.

First, what little I know of economic sociology tells me that access to economic opportunities is deeply network-relative.

Take two college grads of similar intelligence and discipline, Anne and Betty. Anne’s best friend has a brother who just started a small technology company. He figures Anne would be a phenomenal project manager, and it turns out to be true. The company has a huge IPO and Anne ends up a rich executive in what turns out to be a glamorous firm. Betty doesn’t happen to know anyone whose brother runs a promising start-up. Does she have anything approaching an chance equal to Anne’s to get something like Anne’s highly desirable position? Obviously not. But how could she.

Second, desirable positions aren’t just boxes out there waiting to be filled. They are created, sometimes by the people who occupy them. And they may depend on contingencies of technology.

Let’s say it’s 1988. Robert gets into Yale as a legacy, goes on to Harvard Law, also like Dad, gets a clerkship on a district court, and gets a gig at a plush firm whose partners Dad sails with on weekends. Today he’s a partner and a bit of a big deal in Massachusetts Democratic Party politics, having years ago been a summer associate in DC with, and now an informal advisor to, the Governor.

Sudeep gets an academic scholarship to a local state school in Northern California. His immigrant parents want him to go pre-med, but he’s fascinated with computers and studies computer science instead. While in school, he designs some useful software for tracking inventories, and later starts a small business selling this software to stores. His business grows and grows until he sells it for $100 million in 1998. Since then he’s become a successful tech venture capitalist in Silicon Valley and philanthropist, worth half a billion. Politics mostly seems like a nuisance to him, and he stays out of it.

Did Sudeep ever have any realistic chance of becoming a partner at Robert’s firm, or an insider in state politics? No. But he’s also orders of magnitude wealthier than Robert, and his venture capital decisions help determine the path of future technology, which, let us say, will affect standards of living more than the Governor of Massachusetts ever will. Did Robert–an equally talented and motivated guy–have an equal chance at Sudeep’s powerful position? What would that even mean? Sudeep’s position didn’t even exist when Robert was clerking on the Fifth Circuit.

But, hey! There’s a future in which Robert runs successfully for State AG, becomes number two at DOJ, and finally gets appointed a judge on the Federal Court of Appeals. There is no future in which Sudeep has anywhere near this capacity to affect the laws of the land, no matter how much money he might choose to spend on political advocacy. So what would it mean for policy to have equalized access to political power between Robert and Sudeep? Given the technological contingency and social network aspects of opportunity, I don’t even know how to approach the question.

Maybe this is how you approach it, and I do wonder why we don’t see more proposals like the following from those egalitarians who do tend to see the desirable positions as more or less fixed… How about a quota system for firms that limits hiring from high-status schools and mandates a certain number from low-status schools, so that it’s better to be the best kid from the University of North Dakota than the median kid at Princeton? Radical high school-quality affirmative action quotas for college admissions. No Supreme Court justice can have more than one clerk from a top-ten law school. It is illegal ever to hire someone who is a relative, or a friend, or a friend of a friend. Randomized assignments to a vast network of national boarding schools. Combat self-reinforcing prestige by picking an athletic conference at random and then mandating that all Federal Reserve governors for the next ten years be professors at schools from that conference. (So Harvard and MIT econ depopulates as everyone rushes to Creighton and Indiana State. Etc.) Examples of this sort can be multiplied. So would these strategies be “consistent with maintaining equal basic liberties”? Are they necessary for maintaining equal basic liberties, but egalitarians are simply missing the real issue by going on and on about income redistribution?

That there be no systemic, structral discrimination that keep whole classes of talented, motivated people from attaining desirable positions strikes me as obviously desirable, and pretty feasible, too. We’ve made huge strides in just the past several decades. But that’s a point about everybody having a good chance of making the most of their talent and motivation, not an equal chance. Indeed, that’s a long way from the idea that people of similar talent and motivation ought to have something like an equal chance at a given position or office. That seems pretty obviously impossible, and I don’t see the point of it anyway. All I know is that I want a entrepeneurial, innovative, high-growth system in part because that’s the kind that increases the chances of landing a desirable position because new ones are always being invented and that diminishes the relative importance and power of many entrenched and exclusive networks. Elite networks can achieve only limited succeed in opportunity hoarding if new networks, new opportunities, and new hierarchies of prestige and status keep springing up.

  • Cookies
    Good blog.
  • jeannine
    One of the best solutions would be for higher education and training for all citizens.Access to unions for all and eliminate the unpaid internships{who but the wealthy can afford to work for free?}.
  • thisniss
    Equality of outcome is not measurable, nor attainable. Equal access to opportunity is easier to achieve. The clearest example you give is with a legacy student versus a merit scholarship student. The very existence of merit scholarships (and of "affirmative action" in, particularly, academic settings) is to counter-balance the inherent *unfairness* of "legacy" (or, as you would say, "network") access to opportunities. That's not actually a difficult thing to explain, to measure, nor to implement.

    Anyone who wishes to argue that it "hasn't worked" needs to review the past fifty years in our country. How many new members of the middle class were granted entry because they "earned in" via the commitment to equality-of-opportunity born in the civil rights era? Our middle class has grown more as a result of this commitment than at any other time in US history - and the necessity of "legacy" connections had diminished, until the reversals of the Heritage Foundation Supremes led by Scalia coupled with the "deregulation" fanaticism of the new Right leadership in Congress to cordon off access to opportunities for those outside their approved networks. And... here we all are again. :-)
  • Alan
    Surely Plato did a better job of following this train of thought in The Republic? According to him, you need to raise the children of the powerful in orphanages to ensure that network effects won’t inefficiently assign powerful jobs to the (unqualified) children of the powerful.

    Frankly, when something sounds stupid coming from Plato, it is doubtful it will sound smart coming from anyone else.
  • Scott
    How terribly sad, rox.

    Leaving aside third world countries for a moment and focusing on the country that we the people of the United States live in and are responsible for, I do believe that there are ways, both a touch socialist and coldly capitalist in nature, to better provide awareness of, and access to, opportunities to realize human potential throughout our population and that anything done to strengthen our greatest resource, our people, makes us a more competitive and successful nation.

    Apparently, "fate" is too powerful a force for you. Perhaps we should all just forget our ambitions, weep about the fate of third world geniuses and wait for "fate" to determine the course of our lives.

    Well, I'm sure that those of us with spines can find ways to discover and nurture our next generation of leaders, thinkers and athletes, wherever they happen to be born. The first question we must ask ourselves is do we want to maintain our competitive edge in the world? If you are a patriotic American, your answer should be yes. The next question, then, is how do we do that?

    Well, there are many roads to Rome. But whining about fate on the side of the road gets you nowhere.
  • rox
    "thousands of geniuses live and die undiscovered...either by themselves or others. But for the Civil War, Sherman, Grant, Lincoln and Sheridan would not have been discovered, nor risen to notice." (Mark Twain, autobiography.)

    "Captain Strormfield arrived in heaven eager to get sight of those unrivaled and unequaled military geniuses Ceaser, Alexander and Neopolian. but was told by an old resident of heaven that they didn't amount to much there as military genuses.......by comparison with a certain colossal military genius, a shoemaker by trade, who had lived and died unknown in a New England Villiage and had never seen a battle in his earthy life" Mark Twain, Captain Stormfield's Visit to Heaven.

    the point being that opportunity is often unequaled to talent - and that fate has a way of deciding who is discovered and who is successful and who is powerful irregardless of talent. Mark Twain insisted when promoted as the world's greatest humorist that it simply wasn't true, that he had met the greatest humorist in a mining camp as a young man, who was illiterate and unknown. The best humorist never saw a stage and the best military genius never saw a battle. I think of this everytime I hear someone touted as the best at something. Maybe there is a child in some third world country that would be the worlds best athlete except he most probably will life and die undiscovered.
  • sus
    I know 2 young people from the same family.

    One is in college right now. Her mother does all her papers. I mean all of them. They buy two sets of books every term so the mother can have a set. The internet is a great tool to email papers. They are paying lots of tuition right now. When she's out, I'm sure she'll be fine. But, she does very little in school. (or otherwise, as a luxury car, condo, credit card are also part of the deal.)

    The other has graduated from school. Pretty sure it was the same deal. But, through his father's connections, he has a nice job. Oh, he still doesn't have to pay his bills, but still. Now, he is a great kid, so he probably didn't even need his father's connections, but, why not?

    It happens. All the time.

    These young people had everything. They went to good schools growing up. Others, because of financial situations and/or geography did not. Do they not deserve a chance?

    People say that it's due to lack of education that some folks don't succeed, yet they don't want to extend any help to those who are not in a position to get that education.
  • Tracy W
    sus - in the case you describe, I actually feel sorry for those kids. Whatever their parents are giving them, it doesn't include the ability to stand on their own two feet, and write their own uni papers. My parents didn't buy me a car or a condo or a credit card, but at least I got enough of an education at school to get a degree without relying on my parents doing the work, and I can get jobs without my parents' help - things the young people you describe lack. (And of course, since I actually had to learn the material for my degrees, I have enough information stashed away in my head to allow for hours of mental occupation). I think you are wrong in asserting that these kids had everything. They strike me as seriously lacking.

    Others, because of financial situations and/or geography did not. Do they not deserve a chance?

    Well, there's a problem of scale here. We can't expect an entire society to function like the family in your example does, some people actually need to learn how to do things directly. Do you want every one in the country to be able to get through medical school with their mum doing all the work? What happens when mum drops dead - who will train the next generation if no young person ever needs to do their own work at university?

    People say that it's due to lack of education that some folks don't succeed, yet they don't want to extend any help to those who are not in a position to get that education.

    Who, exactly, are these people who don't want to extend any help to those who are not in a position to get that education? Government spending on schools strikes me as one of the most popular forms of government spending there is, and as stated above, scholarships are a common form of private charity.

    I also note again that the 2 young people you describe are not apparently getting an education, instead their mum is.
  • Bob B.
    Can any one point me to an example of equality in the historical record? Biological record? If no one can, what does that tell us about this discussion? My answer, mental wanking. I would like to be proven wrong. Bob
  • Jerry
    The problem isn't that opportunities for economic advancement necessarily depend on individual circumstances; the problem is that those differing opportunities translate into permanent differences in power between individuals. There's very little difference between economic power and political power. The unlucky persons who are born into circumstances where they will never have substantial opportunities are effectively disenfranchised. They might have the formal right to vote, but they never have influence on how policy is framed and they can't run for office. Their best hope for political change is to hope that some elite politician will take up their cause. Thus the intense anger and despair you often see from working-class voters, and their intense attachment to any political figure who ever talks to their interests. In everyday life, we all recognize the difference between the people who count and the people who don't.

    Even socialist and communist societies have elites who count and masses who don't. I'm tempted to say that power inequality is a permanent feature of human society, since all societies have it. But excessive power inequalities are problematic for a society that claims to be democratic and based on equal opportunity. If you buy Jefferson's claim that "government derives its just powers from the consent of the governed," the common people must be engaged with their government for society to be stable. When the power and economic structure is manifestly unfair, people will do something to change it. Try telling a working-class father that it's perfectly all right that he can't get health insurance for his sick child and that there are no decent hospitals in his town.

    The problem with Libertarianism is that it tries to justify the existing social structure, whatever it may be, by asserting without proof that it's an unalterable act of nature. This creates a false dilemma where the only alternatives are laissez-faire or Stalinism. In practice, no real human being wants either.
  • Ian M.
    Robert and Sudeep are presented with obviously different talents and interests. The end point (too much social engineering bad) is fine if not not exactly deep, but the hypothetical does not connect.
  • Scott
    Will, you lost me here: "Did Sudeep ever have any realistic chance of becoming a partner at Robert’s firm, or an insider in state politics? No."

    I read on but it all got a bit weak after that.

    Anyway, let's use the example of a well-known former president of the Harvard Law Review, Barack Obama. Did he have the opportunity to snatch up just about any job he wanted after law school? Yes. Was he born into a well-connected family? Certainly not.

    I do agree with you here, though: "...I want an [sic] entrepreneurial [sic], innovative, high-growth system in part because that’s the kind that increases the chances of landing a desirable position because new ones are always being invented and that diminishes the relative importance and power of many entrenched and exclusive networks."

    That's a solid argument. Arguing, however, that there is so much nepotism at Yale and Harvard and in "Massachusetts Democratic Party politics" that Obama (excuse me, Sudeep) the immigrant's son could never get a shot at the golden ring is stretching a bit. Sure, the "entrenched and exclusive networks" do make it difficult for newcomers. But it is self-destructive for any employer, in either the private or the public sector, to turn away the most qualified applicants for any job in favor of well-connected bums.

    Perhaps the self- (or, say, organizationally-) destructive nature of nepotism can be considered, in a way, creative destruction. Like the current implosion of the GOP. You write: "Elite networks can achieve only limited success [sic] in opportunity hoarding if new networks, new opportunities, and new hierarchies of prestige and status keep springing up." I would go a bit further. Elite networks can quite possibly self-destruct, or be greatly diminished in "prestige and status," if they continually pass over the best and the brightest in favor of sailing buddies' children.

    Anyway, if Sudeep wants to be an "insider in state politics," I'm sure he can make it if he tries in our great nation. Even in Massachusetts.
  • Your examples span the life experiences of less than 5% of the population. To come up with a theory of economic justice based on that is silly. If Harvard's 200 or whatever number of undergraduate seats is all there is, then life seems very arbitrary - it is the luck of the lottery, and justice seems impossible. If however the focus is on availability of a good undergraduate education, then suddenly the landscape changes.

    Anyway, if this is what goes for think-tank-thought, then there is severe injustice going on; there are lots of people with deeper thoughts.
  • Emma
    Thedore Dalrymple makes a similar point in the Social Affairs Unit:
    True equality of opportunity is unachievable - or could only be achieved through a level of social engineering that would make North Korea look like a paradise of laissez-faire; it would mean poverty, inhumanity and horror. Thus argues Theodore Dalrymple. However, if we embrace intellectual elitism, argues Theodore Dalrymple, at least some level of opportunity could be offered to all - something which is not the case now.
  • stuart
    'True equality of opportunity is unachievable'
    Noone claims it is achievable, however that does not mean its not a worthy goal
  • ME
    Structure are in constant flux and all things are never equal, so what else is new? Remember sputnik!
  • Bob
    The only chance of equality existing is in a static state. I have 750 LP's but no turntable, so each LP has an equal chance, zero, of being played. I have 750 CD's and a CD player. No CD is playing now so each CD has a 100% chance of being selected, but once I make a choice, an end to the static state, equality is ended. Bob
  • dave
    Your our example of "Sudeep" the technology entrepreneur is absurd., as would be obvious to anyone with actual knowledge of Silicon Valley.

    Just because someone is an immigrant from a poor country does NOT mean that they themselves (or their families) are poor. These people tend to come from very high-status backgrounds in their home countries and have access to deep and extensive social networks in this country that provide access to social and financial capital.

    Sons of Bangladeshi dirt-framers do not suddenly become whiz kids in the US. Talented but poor immigrants or second-generation children of poor immigrants gravitate towards established, relatively low risk career paths.

    But you don't actually know any of these people, so its easier to view them through simple stereotypes.
  • chris
    Short Will: It's better to redistribute equality Instead of wealth, so let's do neither.
  • Elizabeth
    The elitism of the Korean legal profession seems particularly extreme:

    http://koreabeat.com/?p=2609

    From 2003 through 2008 those six universities accounted for 90.5% of all tenured judges, or 1,090 out 1,205. The SKY schools accounted for 964, 80% of the total.

    The case of prosecutors shows little difference, with 658, or 84.4%, of the 780 tenured prosecutors coming from six universities and 546, or 70%, from the SKY schools.

    Representative Lee said, “I don’t believe there is nothing that can be done about the increasingly serious situation where a handful of universities produce so many of those who pass the bar thus perpetuating power among themselves as if it were hereditary. The establishment of law schools should present an opportunity to correct this situation.”
  • stuart
    Firstly, great post topic!

    Secondly, while you rightly point to the inconsistency on focusing on individual examples, I think that if you aggregated some sort of a measure of success across society you could see that people from different socio-economic backgrounds have vastly different opportunities for success. I think this post points to the need for greater study into the determinants of social mobility. I've been researching some of this recently but havent been able to find a good set of numbers for comparative purposes.

    However you might be interested to know that in study on intergenerational earnings elasticity’s the USA has relatively low social mobility. I.e. the causal effect of a fathers earnings on his sons earnings is greater, than all countries study except the UK. (elasticities below). While Denmark has the lowest.

    Country Preferred Lower Bound Upper Bound
    Canada 0.19 0.16 0.21
    Denmark 0.15 0.13 0.16
    Finland 0.18 0.16 0.21
    France 0.41 0.35 0.45
    Germany 0.32 0.27 0.35
    Norway 0.17 0.15 0.19
    Sweden 0.27 0.23 0.30
    United Kingdom 0.50 0.43 0.55
    United States 0.47 0.40 0.52

    from 'Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility' by Miles Corak
  • pedro
    Stuart, you need more than a corelation to get a causal effect. Some countries may look equal simply because of the effects of the tax system on actual incomes and incentives for effort.
  • stuart
    the formatting of the numbers didnt turn out well. Just so you know the first number is the 'preferred measure' and the second and third, are the upper and lower bounds of elasticity.
  • stuart
    actually the lower and upper...
  • Here's an idea.

    Why don't we encourage people to care less about inequality of results, just as we encourage them to care less about differences of race and sexual preference? Envy is ugly and stupid.

    Of course we should oppose, and try to prevent, real injustices. But, similar people with different incomes or statuses just isn't one.

    I took Will's policy suggestions as illustrations that the costs of steps to seriously try to move closer to equality of results are obviously higher than the benefits. Others seem to take them seriously.

    I suspect that some of the advantages of family and direct social networks will go down as technology advances, self-education is easier, transaction costs go down, and talent and reputation can be established in many ways.

    But, there will always be people with better ideas, or more open to opportunities, or with different values and temperaments that make them more likely to vigorously pursue their goals. It would be a shame if we inhibited them from succeeding.

    Their success is good for its own sake; but it also helps everyone else.
  • GU
    Hear, hear!
  • Will, doesn't the quoted part say, "...equal chances to obtain desirable positions..."? But in your example each person _has_ obtained a desirable position. (I don't know if they had equal chances to do so or not- leave that aside for a second- but they have obtained desirable positions, ones they in fact desired, even.) It would be a stupid view that required each person to have an equal chance to obtain any particular desired position, but that's not what Rawls's view requires. It seems to me that your remarks here are more or less a non sequitur and just miss the point of fair equality of opportunity.
  • Bingo. There are lots of issues with Rawls, but Rawls isn't saying here 'for any given desirable position, everyone on earth must have the same exact opportunity to obtain that one given desirable position'; he's saying 'everyone should have similar opportunities to reach similarly desirable ends.' Both Robert and Sudeep have had the ability to achieve desirable ends and have done so; Rawls (in that example) would seemingly be satisfied.

    Now, you've still got a point that this is unattainable in practice (Anne and Betty will always have some differentiation as a result of network and just plain luck) but it doesn't seem like a bad goal to be striven for within reasonable constraints.
  • Paul O'Pinion
    Life itself is random. Changing that puts constraints on too many levels. Public institutions can dictate quotas, ratios, whatever. Individuals with talent and/or vision will either be found or find what they seek in the public sector. The exceptional ones will know what they seek and realize it. Networking can get you in the door. If you hurt the bottom line the door opener (unless it's dad) will show you the door. Opportunity comes in many forms. Sometimes it takes persistence ( a talent in of itself) coupled with skill sets to achieve goals (placement in a school or job). The opportunity to start one's own business with nothing more than an idea is a huge gift from a market-based economy.
  • assman
    A simple solution which I think would actually be a pretty good idea would be to randomize everything as in a genetic algorithm. You don't hire the most qualified candidate or the give admission to the most qualified student. Instead you give them smaller/larger probabilities of being hired and everything is ultimately determine by a random number generator,
  • mk
    I like it. A sliding scale of randomness: set the parameter to zero and you select the first choice all the time. Set it higher and you select the first choice much of the time, but other choices with decreasing probability.

    It would be interesting to consider elections that work this way too.
  • Jen
    Here's the recent resignation letter of a hedge fund manager (degrees from Michigan State and UCLA) who earned over 800% last year betting against the conventional Wall Street wisdom. He had a bit to say about elitism and legacies...

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/128d399a-9c75-11dd-a4...
  • Dagon
    Doesn't this boil down to the common (and compelling, IMO) observation that "good is better than equal"?

    Maybe with an added bit of "you can't step in the same river twice" - there simply _ARE_ no two people with equal talent and motivation. Each talent and each expression of motivation is unique. If you can bite that bullet, then the problem simplifies a LOT, as networks are just part of talent.
  • Jen
    Mark J., here's my thoughts:

    Is there any evidence that the top ten percent from the rural or depressed inner-city neighborhoods are less accomplished/have less potential than the kids with inherent advantages? This seems to be an assumption that you make, but do you have ACT scores, etc. to back it up? And remember, we're talking about admitted individuals and not district averages.

    Also, if you have the means to go to excellent private schools, is it really a "huge burden" to not be an auto admit to UT Austin? "I am not in the top 10% of my class, but I am wealthy and could go anywhere I want but have always dreamed of being a longhorn" doesn't seem like a compelling argument to knock someone else out who IS in the top 10% of their class, and may have struggled against many disadvantages to get there.
  • Mark J.
    No one could prove that the disadvantaged kids have less potential. I certainly don't think that or make that assumption. They do generally have less accomplishments, though that is a result of a lack of opportunities. Better schools have more AP programs, better teachers, more parent funding and less extra-curricular problems. That's just a sad fact of school inequality.

    I agree with you that not getting into your dream school isn't actually that big of a deal. It feels like it to the kids who are denied their opportunity, but I am just fine with the 10 percent rule.

    Maybe I was playing devil's advocate a bit. I certainly didn't mean to sound like I oppose the rule. I was just throwing it out there for discussion, to see if anyone had any thoughts on it vis a vis Wilkonson's article.
  • Mark J.
    I am curious to know how you feel about the Texas 10 percent rule, which dictates that students in the top ten percent of their Texas high school graduating class be allowed to choose any Texas state university they want. The purpose was to flatten the playing field without using race as a metric. One result is that merit alone is not enough to get into the best schools (UT Austin being the most competitive.) It helps to be in a less competitive high school.

    This has been a huge boon to kids with no connections or resources who are zoned to bad high schools. These kids hail from rural areas, depressed inner-city neighborhoods, etc.

    The rule has been a huge burden to kids with inherent advantages: connections, legacies, private schools, wealthy public school districts. Those kids can go to excellent private schools instead, but many of them grow up dreaming of being longhorns.

    Is it a worthwhile trade-off? Thoughts?
  • anon
    it's *supposed* to be a "huge boon to kids with no connections or resources who are zoned to bad high schools". (these are mostly minority schools.) in reality, we have seen a reverse white flight, where parents move and enroll their kids in a lesser performing school so that their student will be in the top 10%.
  • We could take a hint from symphony orchestras. I think all the major orchestras hold their first-round auditions behind a screen. This at least reduces network (and other) biases, and puts a higher premium on actual competence.
  • A very thought provoking post. I think there are reason why we don't see the types of egalitarian proposals you "suggest," but it is hard to pin down what those reasons are. Here are a few thoughts toward that end:

    Proposals are made within the realm of the politically possible and proposals such as these would have to overcome (i) significant resistance to telling individuals who they must associate with (that resistance doesn't apply with as much force to telling associations/corporations who they can't exclude as members obviously), and (ii) seem arbitrary and contrary to the intuitions supporting meritocratic institutions.

    I am sure there is more to be done with this, but I think the process of trying to unpack what people (egalitarians in this case) are really looking for is pretty interesting.
  • If a good chance of making their most of their talent and motivation is , all other things equal, is better than a poor chance, then why isn't an equal chance, all other things equal, better than a good chance?
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