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	<title>Comments on: Michael Clemens for Treasury Secretary</title>
	<atom:link href="http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/</link>
	<description>The Sweet Release of Reason</description>
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		<title>By: Live Lead Transfer</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-591095</link>
		<dc:creator>Live Lead Transfer</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Jun 2009 16:05:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-591095</guid>
		<description>nice post</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>nice post</p>
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		<title>By: Michael Kochin</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583619</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Kochin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 03:15:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583619</guid>
		<description>Beautiful:  Now can calculate how much my 30gb ipod is worth in 1810 dollars.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;In other words, the smoothness of the graph may be an artifact of the way that the CPI is calculated across changes in the basket of consumption goods.  The right CPI is the one that keeps the trend going.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Beautiful:  Now can calculate how much my 30gb ipod is worth in 1810 dollars.</p>
<p>In other words, the smoothness of the graph may be an artifact of the way that the CPI is calculated across changes in the basket of consumption goods.  The right CPI is the one that keeps the trend going.</p>
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		<title>By: KH</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583610</link>
		<dc:creator>KH</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 02:09:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583610</guid>
		<description>David, yes you are off the mark. Wars destroy value, big big time. They create some new technologies in a hurry, but the sheer destruction is many times worse. Economic growth doesn&#039;t happen because of political instability, but despite it. The underlying growth, which is the sum of learning of individuals and society, just keeps on. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Of course, bad times are bad times, even if good times are sure to happen again. It should help, though, to know that the bad times are not permanent, as some describe it.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Another point is that recessions keep getting lighter and lighter, not worse. It is virtually guaranteed that in the coming recession, people on average will still be better off than even in the &quot;heyday&quot; under Clinton, because the economic growth that has happened in the meantime, and which cannot be undone.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>David, yes you are off the mark. Wars destroy value, big big time. They create some new technologies in a hurry, but the sheer destruction is many times worse. Economic growth doesn&#39;t happen because of political instability, but despite it. The underlying growth, which is the sum of learning of individuals and society, just keeps on. </p>
<p>Of course, bad times are bad times, even if good times are sure to happen again. It should help, though, to know that the bad times are not permanent, as some describe it.</p>
<p>Another point is that recessions keep getting lighter and lighter, not worse. It is virtually guaranteed that in the coming recession, people on average will still be better off than even in the &#8220;heyday&#8221; under Clinton, because the economic growth that has happened in the meantime, and which cannot be undone.</p>
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		<title>By: Curious</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583607</link>
		<dc:creator>Curious</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Oct 2008 01:33:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583607</guid>
		<description>What about income distribution?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Any support for the notion of the middle class shrinking (separating into rich and poor)?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What about income distribution?</p>
<p>Any support for the notion of the middle class shrinking (separating into rich and poor)?</p>
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		<title>By: david morris</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583602</link>
		<dc:creator>david morris</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 23:04:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583602</guid>
		<description>&quot;The Great Depression was traumatic in countless ways, but astonishingly, it’s not clear that we are any worse off today than we would be if the whole thing never occurred. Anyone who made such a claim in the 1930s would have been scoffed at, but that’s what happened.&quot;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Yes, but the reason the economy was able to recover so quickly after the Depression is because the whole world went to war. If someone in the 1930s had claimed that per capita GDP would be back on track by 1950, but only because the economy would be spurred by five years of worldwide, total war (entailing the slaughter of innocent millions and the physical destruction of most of Europe and Japan), would that person have been scoffed at? &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;My point is, not all costs are strictly economic, and so not all costs can be captured in a chart such as this one. It very well could be that in little more than a decade, GDP will be back on track. But if that only happens because of economic growth resulting from the very political instability caused by the worldwide recession, is it really much of a win? It&#039;s like: maybe my portfolio/career is back on solid ground thanks to the booming wartime economy of the last decade, but maybe it&#039;s also true that my son was killed or injured in that war.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Am I way off the mark here?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Great Depression was traumatic in countless ways, but astonishingly, it’s not clear that we are any worse off today than we would be if the whole thing never occurred. Anyone who made such a claim in the 1930s would have been scoffed at, but that’s what happened.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes, but the reason the economy was able to recover so quickly after the Depression is because the whole world went to war. If someone in the 1930s had claimed that per capita GDP would be back on track by 1950, but only because the economy would be spurred by five years of worldwide, total war (entailing the slaughter of innocent millions and the physical destruction of most of Europe and Japan), would that person have been scoffed at? </p>
<p>My point is, not all costs are strictly economic, and so not all costs can be captured in a chart such as this one. It very well could be that in little more than a decade, GDP will be back on track. But if that only happens because of economic growth resulting from the very political instability caused by the worldwide recession, is it really much of a win? It&#39;s like: maybe my portfolio/career is back on solid ground thanks to the booming wartime economy of the last decade, but maybe it&#39;s also true that my son was killed or injured in that war.</p>
<p>Am I way off the mark here?</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Haight</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583594</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle Haight</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 19:36:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583594</guid>
		<description>1890, not 1980.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>1890, not 1980.</p>
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		<title>By: Will Wilkinson</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583591</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Wilkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583591</guid>
		<description>I gues it&#039;s an artifact. The business cycle has actually become LESS volatile since the 80s. That&#039;s the change in the economy no one can explain.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I gues it&#39;s an artifact. The business cycle has actually become LESS volatile since the 80s. That&#39;s the change in the economy no one can explain.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Haight</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583590</link>
		<dc:creator>Kyle Haight</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 18:45:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583590</guid>
		<description>The thing that struck me about that graph was how much more short-term volatility it shows after about 1890.  Is that an artifact caused by more limited data from the earlier period, or does it reflect some actual change in the economy?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The thing that struck me about that graph was how much more short-term volatility it shows after about 1890.  Is that an artifact caused by more limited data from the earlier period, or does it reflect some actual change in the economy?</p>
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		<title>By: GilM</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583585</link>
		<dc:creator>GilM</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:53:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583585</guid>
		<description>It probably has.  How do you know what the growth would have been without it?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It probably has.  How do you know what the growth would have been without it?</p>
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		<title>By: lemmy caution</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583583</link>
		<dc:creator>lemmy caution</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:06:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583583</guid>
		<description>The rise of the welfare state sure has slowed productivity growth.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The rise of the welfare state sure has slowed productivity growth.</p>
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		<title>By: ultralib</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583580</link>
		<dc:creator>ultralib</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:27:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583580</guid>
		<description>Re-route your vote to the GOP so FMFM and CRA can be addressed in a responsible manner.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Re-route your vote to the GOP so FMFM and CRA can be addressed in a responsible manner.</p>
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		<title>By: Matt Kaufman</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583576</link>
		<dc:creator>Matt Kaufman</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:57:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583576</guid>
		<description>Starvation?  That would HAVE to be a pretty small number.  In fact, I&#039;ve never even heard anyone claim anyone starved during the depression, outside of the book version of &quot;The Grapes of Wrath&quot; which isn&#039;t exactly a documentary.  If you have a link, please share, as I&#039;m curious.  Now if you want to talk ~famine~, look at the Ukraine during the 20&#039;s and 30&#039;s.  Those poor people...</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Starvation?  That would HAVE to be a pretty small number.  In fact, I&#39;ve never even heard anyone claim anyone starved during the depression, outside of the book version of &#8220;The Grapes of Wrath&#8221; which isn&#39;t exactly a documentary.  If you have a link, please share, as I&#39;m curious.  Now if you want to talk ~famine~, look at the Ukraine during the 20&#39;s and 30&#39;s.  Those poor people&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: fedgovernor</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583575</link>
		<dc:creator>fedgovernor</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 13:39:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583575</guid>
		<description>&quot;I suspect that the slowdown is short-lived as people isolate then route around the fault.&quot;&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;How do you re-route around politicians who demand that my bank loan my deposit to illegal aliens for zero-down home loans with no income or citizenship verification, as a means of vote buying?&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Every foreclosure of THEIR house lowers the value of MY HOUSE. They, in other words, are stealing my equity right out from fking under me.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;How do I reroute around that, short of a revolution?</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;I suspect that the slowdown is short-lived as people isolate then route around the fault.&#8221;</p>
<p>How do you re-route around politicians who demand that my bank loan my deposit to illegal aliens for zero-down home loans with no income or citizenship verification, as a means of vote buying?</p>
<p>Every foreclosure of THEIR house lowers the value of MY HOUSE. They, in other words, are stealing my equity right out from fking under me.</p>
<p>How do I reroute around that, short of a revolution?</p>
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		<title>By: Austin</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583570</link>
		<dc:creator>Austin</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 12:35:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583570</guid>
		<description>Today my toddler son was crying because he slipped over when he was pulling himself up. I remarked to my wife that we as adults must look the same way during many times during our adult life.&lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;There are some awful things in the world - but next to the Holodomor or the Holocaust or World War II, this burp in the markets is nothing. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;Given today&#039;s level of knowledge and capabilities for deep analysis, I suspect that the slowdown is short-lived as people isolate then route around the fault. &lt;br&gt;&lt;br&gt;The danger lies in overreaction by politicians - and given the supergeniuses we have, its a possibility.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today my toddler son was crying because he slipped over when he was pulling himself up. I remarked to my wife that we as adults must look the same way during many times during our adult life.</p>
<p>There are some awful things in the world &#8211; but next to the Holodomor or the Holocaust or World War II, this burp in the markets is nothing. </p>
<p>Given today&#39;s level of knowledge and capabilities for deep analysis, I suspect that the slowdown is short-lived as people isolate then route around the fault. </p>
<p>The danger lies in overreaction by politicians &#8211; and given the supergeniuses we have, its a possibility.</p>
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		<title>By: Will Wilkinson</title>
		<link>http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/2008/10/06/michael-clemens-for-treasury-secretary/comment-page-1/#comment-583566</link>
		<dc:creator>Will Wilkinson</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Oct 2008 11:57:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.willwilkinson.net/flybottle/?p=1878#comment-583566</guid>
		<description>If you&#039;re 40, you can expect to live about 35 more years. If you&#039;re 50, you can expect to live about 30 more. If you&#039;re 60, you can expect to live a bit more than 20 more. That&#039;s a pretty good amount of long run for most everybody!</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you&#39;re 40, you can expect to live about 35 more years. If you&#39;re 50, you can expect to live about 30 more. If you&#39;re 60, you can expect to live a bit more than 20 more. That&#39;s a pretty good amount of long run for most everybody!</p>
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