There may be social trends at work that aren’t happening simultaneously on either side of the Atlantic. For instance the explosion in pre marital sex we’ve seen in the west didn’t start everywhere at once. The same could be true for birth rates. Whatever factors that are at work in Europe might start revealing their hand in the USA in a decade or two (if ever).

There is no one reason why the birth rates are higher here than in Europe, it is a combination of factors that make child rearing more favorable and attractive. However, once you have attained what you want in life on a material level, which is easy to do in America, most find that they are still not content with life and will try to increase there relationships with other humans. Children also give one a feeling that their time on this mortal coil was not a complete waste of time and that they are leaving behind a legacy that will live on after their death.

Seattle is often cited these days as a “blue-state” place with a low birth rate, compared to Salt Lake City being a “red-state” place with a higher birth rate. Guess what guys? 25 years ago Seattle used to be a “family” town with a Salt Lake City like birth rate. Today, it is not. Why? Because housing is way more expensive compared to income than it was 25 years ago. 25 years ago, Seattle housing was comparable to Salt Lake City. Today, its like California.

I can cite example after example. California’s Central valley (often called the Sam Juaquin Valley) has become expansive as well. What cost $200K now goes for $400K. The trend is not limited to major cities. Even Bend, Oregon (population 50K) has a median house price of $350K.

Of course, much of this is based on a speculative bubble and does not reflect the “fundamental” value of real estate. But does anyone here really expect real estate values to return to 1995-2000 price levels (If you do, I’ve got a hot deal on a bridge for you)?

The muslims in Europe do not have their “third world” birth rates. They have birth rates slightly higher than current U.S., but are falling almost as fast as the white European levels. Indeed, even much of the third world no longer has “third world” like birth rates. Both Turkey and Iran are below replacement and Egypt is falling fast. India’s at 2.85 kids per woman (the muslim rate is around 3) and is falling fast. Only sub-Saharan Africa has really high birth-rates and even these are starting to decline in some countries.

Back to the U.S. If housing prices continue their long term trend of rising faster than income, you can donuts to dollars that the U.S. will have European (and East Asian) birth rates within the next 20 years (I think within 10 years).

One factor people are overlooking I think is the acceptability of motherhood in the United States. Motherhood as a calling has withstood the onslaught of “modernism” in America in a way that it did not in Western Europe. America has a nostalgia for its roots and I think we underestimate how many people, young women especially, still hope for and work toward the nuclear family ideal.

Europeans expect their government to do much more for them but reliance breeds at best a luke warm appreciation. When it comes down to the biological desire to make sure your children are provided for, they don’t trust the government nor do they particularly desire to be indebted to the government for raising their children. They just take a pass on the whole venture hoping someone else will produce the next generation. Maybe the government should figure out a way to do that for them too.

We’ve got it pretty lucky over here. Most breeders live in the ‘burbs and own a car and can zip around however we damn well please. I always thought this explanation was a little more common sensical than all that religion/happy people stuff.

The tightly packed population and increasing poverty of Europe may be factors, but the full story is obviously more complicated than that.

You see the exact same process in the U.S. in the last two Presidential elections: Bush carried 25 of the 26 states with the highest white total fertility rate (babies per woman), while Kerry won the bottom 16. Same with measures of years married among younger white adults. Similar for housing costs and housing inflation.

A quick look at a map shows that the Blue States are located along oceans and Great Lakes, so suburban housing expansion can’t proceed in 360 degrees the way it can in inland Red States. That’s the bottom line.

You can read all about how Affordable Family Formation drives American voting here:

http://blog.vdare.com/archives/2005/05/08/affordable-family-formation-the-neglected-key-to-gops-future/

Here’s how you really boost birthrates–make childhood vaccinations illegal and do away with antibiotics, neonatal intensive care units, children’s hospitals, and all the other advancements that make childhood deaths unusual in the developed world.

I’m kinda worried about the Islamist explosion–with very high birthrates in the poorest muslim countries. Somebody’s got to make more warm bodies to stand against the sharia nonsense.

I think the biggest factor in large families is having one spouse stay home. And in our area we do have more than a few stay-at-home dads. Most of the smaller families I know (1-2 kids), both parents work.