Institutions, Boundaries, and Useless Statistics

by Will Wilkinson on March 2, 2006

Don Boudreaux has been doing the Lord’s work by pointing out that economies are not bounded by political borders. I’ve made the point before that the better a state’s institutions are, the less the state level is the appropriate final unit of analysis. Good institutions within a state’s borders are precisely what enables the people under the jurisdiction of a state to create complex networks of economic, political, and moral cooperation with people outside that jurisdiction. Which is a way of saying the good institutions in here increase our interdependence with people and institutions out there.

Nothing has brought this point home to me more than the lovely, truthy, graphics accompanying Richard Florida’s Thomas Friedman takedown “The World is Spiky” [pdf] in the October 2005 Atlantic.

Scientific CitationsPatents

[click for full-size]

What is manifest in the pictures is that U.S. institutions, in addition to producing more wealth and using more energy, produce scientific discoveries at a rate far outpacing the rest of the world. Just glancing at picture, it appears that MIT and Cal Tech combined produce almost as much scientific discovery as all of of Europe, which in turn produces more science than the rest of the world. The market economies of the Pacific Rim produce a trickle of science, but produce on overwhelming proportion of the world’s tehnological innovation as measured by patents.

Here is one of these pictures’ 1000 stories. American institutions confer a fantastically huge positive externality, in terms of knowledge, to the rest of the world. Science is a root cause of economic growth. New knowledge enables new technologies, which enable increases in the productivity of capital, which enable growth. And good institutions are the root cause of science. If the U.S. produces most of the world’s knowledge and Asia produces most of the world’s technology, then the institutions that underpin epistemic and technical advance are chiefly responsible for growth in states that have different institutions, but which are able to import knowledge. Which is why it is nonsense to compare, say, American and French GDP growth, as if those growth rates were a function of American and French institutions in isolation from one another. Because institutions are not isolated. The interesting question is: what would French GDP growth have looked like if the U.S. had produced, say, only 10% of its actual scientific output? If the Japanese had made only a 10% of their technological advances? My sense is that French growth would not have looked good. (NB: I have picked the French because they are very good in science and tech, but even so, the point is, others are much better.)
And there’s the point. French institutions are good enough to take advantage of American science and Asian technology, and so can remain stable because they are plugged into others’ comparative advantages, and can power their system (literally: the French did not think up the nuclear reactor) on the uninternalizable positive externalities of other systems of institutions. The flip side, though, is that it would be a tragedy for the French, and the world, if American institutions produced less science. It is not just that the U.S. would be worse off if its institutions were more like France. France would be worse off if U.S. institutions were more like France.

  • "The Japan/Korea patents are probably for alot of tiny little innovations on existing products."

    99% of all patents are for tiny little innovations on existing products.
  • MPbjt@BMPJT.COM
    The Japan/Korea patents are probably for alot of tiny little innovations on existing products.
  • Robert Schwartz
    Ithink the big spike on the west coast of the US is the san francisco bay. not LA. So its Stanford/Berkley/Santa Cruz, not Cal Tech.
  • PLN
    Lovely graphs, although if Javier's right some may be lovely but misleading. The patent graph, also, should be taken with a grain of salt; you file patents in the US only if you care about competing in the US, which biases the graph towards cities with multinationals, etc. The picture is a bit unclear on how it's aggregating USPTO vs. WIPO data, etc.; but no matter how it does it, it's clearly biased against local-knowledge and incremental innovation embodied purely in production processes rather than legal rights. And, of course, this only emphasizes how important it is to get our rules on IP right--have you checked out Levine and Boldrin's -Against Intellectual Monopoly- draft?
  • Will Wilkinson
    It may be worth pointing out that taking the EU, as a unit is interesting, the EU not being a state, but a confederation, and there being very few EU-wide institutions.

    Also, the U.S. population is less than 2/3 of the EU's. So we've still got a higher per capita citation rate. Take that!
  • Will Wilkinson
    Hmm. Then the picture is definitely misleading!

    We could break it down. Physics citiations, chemistry citations, biology, etc. Some ares will have more economic relevance than others. It is probably hard to pin producitivy gains on particular discoveries, but I wonder where the most efficieny-enhancing primary disoveries come from?

    Thanks!
  • Javier
    An interesting report:

    In the mid-1990s, the United States' declining share of world science output was intersected by that of the ascending European Union. Today, the EU has reached almost five percent more than the United States' share. The Asia Pacific region enjoys the most dramatic increase in share percentage, up by approximately 12 percent. If current trends continue, the Asia Pacific region will likely outstrip the United States by 2011.

    Scientific output is measured here as follows: "The study was conducted using citation data from the more than 8,700 prestigious, high-impact journals archived in the National Science Indicators(R) database."

    Of course, world scientific output is expanding rapidly even if the US is experiencing modest relative decline.
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